ChrisD_Macro

ChrisD_Macro Updated 

For the first half of 2018 BTC has been in a major bear market, but this was expected and warranted given the massive rally 2017 had for BTC. The thing about manias, crashes, and the market in general is that nothing is new. No matter how "different this time" it seems, it really isn't. This is because human psychology is the same, we continue to be extra...

ChrisD_Macro

The famous Death Cross pattern is close on Bitcoins daily chart. The Death Cross is when the 50 day moving average moves below the 200 day moving average. The logic behind it is that both short term and long term trends are both negative, hence the term death. The opposite is the Golden Cross, where the 50 moves above the 200 signaling that both short term and...

ChrisD_Macro

It appears that BTCUSD has completed the 2nd wave pullback from February lows to highs and has ABC'd its way to the bottom and we are about to begin the wave 3 (the most exciting wave) Wave 1(up) 6,000 to 11,788 Wave 2 (down)11,788 to 8,342 Wave 3 (up) TBD projected to be around the 28,400 level Wave 4 (down) near the 20k level Wave 5 (up) near 42,000 level ...

ChrisD_Macro

The 12 hour chart on BTCUSD is showing a 9 count with reversal today as these factors come into play: Just closed above overhead trend line resistance yesterday The Twitter Famous (fwiw) "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern has played out signaling moves to the 17k levels Bullish territory above the pivot, thought admittedly this is a weak bullish...

ChrisD_Macro Updated 

A portion of the portfolio has exposure to crypto currencies, both Bitcoin (the most liquid and well known) and Ethereal. In addition to holding cash positions in these currencies, I do like to trade them. The moves are strong and can hold a trend really well. When I'm on the right side of a trade I tend to get a lot of follow through on the trades. I entered in...

ChrisD_Macro Updated 

My favorite trading pattern is to buy breakouts or breakdowns after a base (high base/low base). Gold is in that ideal pattern that I look for, nothing fancy here. Price has risen (like almost everything else) since the US election in November. Unlike equities though, volume hasn't deteriorated as we move higher, though it hasn't risen much either. We are...

ChrisD_Macro

The last time we were at such lows in the VIX, we had a global financial meltdown. I'm not calling anything on another meltdown, that's not my job. Simply looking to take a little stab at volatility returning. Currently we find ourselves in the longest period of time that the S&P 500 has had a 1% move, higher or lower. I'm buying Calls on VIX, April 2017 $14...

ChrisD_Macro

GBPUSD has hit historic lows after Brexit (UK exiting from the EU). First off, we have so much pressure down, this is a pretty aggressive move down, and it looks like we are going to consolidate down here for a while. To be sure a low base pattern is forming and we could indeed see further lows from here, as the trend is firmly in place. That being said, a weak...

ChrisD_Macro

A clear reversal happened the end of 2015 with the dollar, bringing to an end the long term up trend. After a move up this high (2013 .99 - 2016 above 1.45 a natural retracement or consolidating is expected. I see both as an opportunity to take a long term (2 year) position in this buy buying puts on FXC two years out. Technically on the monthly chart there is a...