Rest in peace my long call. This pattern is very close to completion. I don't really expect a big turn around, but after many premature trades that didn't wait for the pattern; I'll be waiting for this to touch support before I make any decisions.
BTCUSD warned us of this resistance bounce with an RSI Price divergence. In doing so, it’s printed a bearish bart. Higher time frames look different and the current support bounce looks nice and rounded but I’m skeptical we will hold this range in the next day or two.
RSI has been a leading indicator for SPELL since December. While 4H shows it somewhere in the lower middle, 12H and 1D both show RSI at the moving into deeply oversold territory. Other coins are showing greater strength against BTC right now, but SPELL is a young coin and as such seems very sensitive to the large caps. This also corresponds with my hopes that...
FTMUSD needs to clear this resistance trend line or the next swing would be large. Given the range volatility of fantom, and if this wedge I've drawn is in play, the next swing would take us down around 40%. However, network adoption for Opera is skyrocketing. It passed $AVAX recently. The fundamentals so bull. All that being said, I'm very long on FTM.
This heikin ashi candle looks like the highlighted callout on LTF (2H). While the 2H pattern is absolutely a double bottom, I'm hesitant to use patterns on timeframes below days. If the BTCUSD support bounce doesn't hold, FTM will turn back around and continue the larger scale higher time frame consolidation. On-chain indicators show alot of promise that we are...
Look at this RSI Price divergence on SPELLUSD. I'm buying. Buy now, stake it on abracadabra, tell all time high, profit. A bearish divergence led this downtrend in SPELL, so perhaps this coin, right now, is sensitive to RSI signals.
THIS is a long term consolidation pattern. If true, more pain ahead. I'm long now, but if we push down I'm going to wait until we reach $1.60, then fill my bags so freakin full oh lawd. Don't get me wrong. I very much want this to be wrong, as I'm deeply invested in $FTM, but I'll take the opportunity. Based on these cyclic lines I've plotted, this pattern could...
So, IF this is a head and shoulders, it will look like this. If we bounce off the resistance at $47,000 then we may be setting this pattern up. The previous touch on the base line was a liquidation cascade wick, so I don't really count it as part of the pattern. This is a nod to Peter Brandt's take on it as well. I think it might be wise to sell $47,000, or you...
If we count $2.48 as the first complete move, this current high of $3.16 is the 1.618 extension. This total move accounts for 150%. $2.89 is the .618 Fibonacci ratio for the move from 1 to 1.618. This is also where the last high volume cluster of volatility occurred. If we pull back here, I’ll be eyeing this range as the next support zone.
I was hoping LUNA would signal the end of an ABC wave with some bull run, but the last day or 2 appears to invalidate that. If we retest support here, it may be the case that there’s more downside to go. According to the volume profile and previous ATH the next real support zone lies near $77. I’m somewhat less than confident we’ve found the bottom.
I’m concerned about the gap formed on 2H and 4H. It corresponds to support at $2.385. I won’t be surprised if we bounce down and fill this gap before continuing our trend. These patterns were looking very similar until this candle began to form. Now they’ve diverged and I’m short term bearish.
I would love for FTM to have a green weekend, but I'm not certain. At this and lower time frames, there's plenty of room for movement to $2.10, just based on mean regression. While this time frame pattern is encouraging, the current candle is less so. There is support at $2.16, so there's still a chance for a strong bounce out of this pattern but I suspect we will...
So, overlaid against the price action is the recovery pattern from 20 July 21. In July, however, price reentered this regression channel in a single day. Our 12H and 1D candles are bullish and strong, but price is not moving as fast in recovery as it did in July. Price is now at the resistance line for the regression channel, and if it reenters I'd be confident in...
In May, after the ATH, we entered this channel. Note that ETHUSD bottomed on a single candle and returned to trend after. This pattern looks visually similar, and conditions are similar. Note the RSI appears to correlate as well.
This chart illustrates the danger and benefit of using oscillators. The RSI very clearly warned of weakness in November when the all time high was accompanied by a lower high in the RSI. However, if we look back to July - September, the RSI is showing us a similar signal while the market headed towards ATH. In examining this, I noticed that BTCUSD always sets...
So, this pattern has plagued all bigger caps, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Fantom, but didn't show on SPELLUSD in anything but 4H. The 2H actually contradicts this signal, but when faced with LTF/HTF, I tend towards HTF as a rule. I have yet to see any convincing bottom signals anywhere in the market, so more downside in play for spell as well.
Bearish divergence in the RSI and price pattern, and a bearish chart pattern with failed highs. Next support near $2.
These bearish divergences in RSI printed on BTCUSD and ETHUSD before the market turned. In hindsight it’s very easy to spot, but maybe less so in the moment. So in order to develop a system in which we could spot this in the future; any time a higher high is printed, check the corresponding RSI level from the previous high (the now most recent, now second...