0.67 should be hit. 0.6440 as backup. In the next couple of weeks other xUSD pairs will go up, too. EURUSD will be the weakest performer, but 1.12..1.13 should be hit.
Good rejection off 27k, Wave E is due, should reach above 34k.
The move above 142.50 will complete the corrective uptrend that began in January.
This will be the final push before the entire world descends into complete chaos in May-Sept.
The complete structure of wave 4 will neatly resemble a classic triangle, only wave E will break to new highs. This is the last attempt of the market to buy the dip in Treasuries. (Also the last attempt of EURJPY to reach a new high - should stop around 157 next week). After that wave 5 of the downtrend in Treasuries will commence, targeting the peak of the...
I still cannot confirm that the triangle in wave 4 has ended. Triangles take time to develop, but once they are over, wave 5 almost always takes less than 0.618 of the duration of wave 4 to compete. If W4 ended today, then the crash in Treasuries should end before 23 Aug 2023: by that time we will see 10Y at 10%.
One new low is due. SPX should retest 4300. EURUSD may finally close the gap at 1.12, possibly hitting 1.14 in this final shot.
Wave 5 is inevitable, only its time of flight is unknown. In a well-structured trend (and we have a perfect trend here), the time spent between points 3 and 5 is loosely related to the duration of 1-3. I have seen waves 5 hit top/bottom at 0.5..0.786 of this ratio. It's never a precise fib number, but 3-5 does tend to be faster than 1-3. Based on these...
Don't underestimate the power of wave 5, especially in commodities, Gold, Silver, and now in crypto. 36000 may be tagged during the week-end.
There is no more resistance left for the current uptrend in USDRUB. The weakening of the Ruble will continue throughout the 2023. It won't stop until it reaches 180-200 to the dollar.
At this point there are just two scenarios for 2023 market development: 1. The market crash will happen entirely in April-June. 2. The sell-off will take the entire 2023. Looking at the logarithmic scale of some stocks I see that the crash may take a lot more than 2-3 months. I am 100% confident that April-May will deliver on its bearish promises, but the markets...
There will be a minor new top the coming week, but that's it. The end of the bull market is coming to every market, some have already reversed, some still have to make one last top.
I think I've decoded the market structure in TSLA. Let's see on Monday - if TSLA fails to reach 218, then the structure is confirmed, and all that's left is a devastating crash to below 40 in wave C of 5. And even if 218 is reached, then wave 5 is still due, only it will be ABC, but will take about the same time.
4300 is back on the table again, accompanied by a new major low in VIX and (possibly) the last one multi-year high in EURJPY.
One last move upwards, some range expansion to the upside, then green 5 will begin.
The downtrend in EURGBP is gaining strength, but it is still waiting for Treasuries to enter wave 5 for real. Once it happens, everyone will rush into to Dollar like crazy, and EURUSD will be falling faster than any other major currency. This spring we are going to see GBPUSD below 1.00 (0.95?) and EURGBP around 0.77. All in all, EURUSD should be around 0.75 by...
I know what's going to happen to EURUSD, and its sudden collapse to 0.75 will leave no chance for Gold. Also a correction to wave 1 should be a lot deeper than 0.382, so a very powerful wave E is very likely. No need to short yet, but keeping a long position is not wise at the moment.
So here's the final master plan for the next few months. It will materialize to the letter and there will be no laughs when 10Y hits 10% at the end of an extended wave 5. The question is - why do I believe that wave 5 will be extended? There is no numerically or analytically certain way to tell this with 100% confidence. I can bet my life on yields going higher,...