Buyer beware here for the semis... NASDAQ:SMH Monthly chart, parallel channel resistance..
Bearish Engulfing, breakaway Gap, trendline break + retest. assumption: Fib# Ext. to 3.618 ( 238 ), retracement to 1.618 (182) Short 240 Stop 225 Target 185 Risk management is much more important than a good entry point. I am not a PRO trader. In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
... for a 2.07 credit. Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything). Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max. As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March...
There are a number of trends and fibs that are showing SMH could be $350 by December of 2025. Of course, the smaller channel intersects with top of the larger channel right around that time, which would be likely to see a significant pullback. Thoughts? Questions? Let me know and boost if you like this idea!
SMH and AMD are showing signs of continuing their run here and we believe there could be a trade made here for a move off this handle. Prominent outperformance by both and our belief at the moment is that the Nasdaq may help out.
... for a 172.42 debit. Comments: While I'm waiting for a July contract to open up in broad market instruments (IWM, QQQ, SPY), shopping around the ETF space for premium. Relative to broad market, SMH IV isn't horrible (the 30-day is currently at 29.3%). Selling the -75 delta call against long stock, to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of...
If we take a step back and plot the weekly chart of SMH, there lies a possibility that we may have a ABC pattern playing out in the weeks/months to come. We are not out of the descending channel yet (a bullish sign) and it could also notch another level down as well (can't rule this out though I think is quite remote), so those who have yet to go LONG can wait...
Not the best spot to try & get long semi's imo. NVDA reports tonight. I'm playing it short via SOXS. This way I won't get burned if NVDA doesn't fall hard & could possibly get a chance to add if NVDA goes up a little. Ultimately looking for SMH to test VWAP from October lows around $172.
What do you think?!? Looks easy to see IMO. Daily top on the SMH. Bad things coming for semis?
This is a very long-term view of SMH. You can see the FIB that is in play which is anchored at $41 in December of 2018. We ran up all the way to just about $160 in December of 2021. We had a hard pullback to $84 and did a fast turn around, again to $160, in July of 2023. We retraced almost perfectly to the 50% of that move to $136 and we are now in the uptrend...
The S&P500 broke out this week to new all time highs. Finally playing catchup the nasdaq indices. Semi-conductors continue to be the bright spot in the market. 10 year yield confims breakout. many S&P sectors closed negative on the week despite the marekt making ATH's
Weekly chart, the formed chart pattern (Cup & Handle) has a target of 238, then 258 (after stabilizing above 240) The stop loss below line R2 should be considered.
SMH has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. Looking for a bounce to 169-170 if it can close above the neck line. Trading this with SOXL if pattern confirms.
Wait for a pull back to the blue trend line before buying. A close below and the pattern fails. Best moves come from failed moves. Cup & Handle Pattern The NASDAQ:SMH (Semiconductor ETF) is exhibiting a Cup & Handle pattern in technical analysis. This bullish continuation pattern involves a rounded bottom (cup) followed by a consolidation period (handle)....
The semiconductor sector has been on fire since bottoming out at the end of October. In fact, the low to the high in November was just over 21%! Some consolidation of those gains would be healthy. I am looking for the NASDAQ:SMH ETF to fill the gap from Nov 14th. I am not predicting that it will however, I am thinking that is a good possibility. I have an alert...
The chart posted can now be posted and the ew labeling we have now ended or will end wave 5 of 5 of wave 3 top and begin a sharp drop in thr sox and smh back down for a week or more in wave 4 of 5 of 5 then The last wave up will end the rally from oct 13 th 2022 in super cycle degree and we will then see a drop back to .382 to 50 % from 2009 once more in...
The semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SMH is currently trading at an all time high because of the belief that there will be increased demand for semiconductors arising from the applications of generative AI. However, on a fundamental level, semiconductor revenue has been dropping for the past five consecutive quarters ( Omdia ). In fact, in the first quarter of 2023...
$SMH:1D Signal sitting just above the -3SD (136.46) and needs to reverse trend in order to maintain the strength of the longterm linear regression trend at 0.91 Pearson R^2. Given the strength of the multi-year trend, an attempt at an upward mean reversion to the 161.17 price region is not unreasonable to expect going into the end of the year. I would expect...