After a 6-month correction, the uptrend resumes with strength and it will retest the 28.8 level again. We are long and we expect a break out on this level as inflation is driving commodity prices higher. Moreover, soybean harvests are expected to be smaller in southern Brazil this season as fields suffer from dryness, which could drive the prices up as well.
The season has begun - seems like corn has bottomed, broken the downward correction, and is now beginning to overcome the different MAs.
According to the seasonality, we should see the high in corn around June-July next year. I expect therefore at least the reaching of the former high at 3.15 EUR.
But you should of course take a deeper look at the underlying...
We identified what could be a large cup and handle on the daily time frame, as we suggested the price moved up to resistance levels and face a heavy rejection. We are now patiently waiting for it to hit that support level below.
GreenGateFX
The negative trend that seemed to be pointing towards the up trendline created in November 2020 has been stopped in the last two weeks.
Various macroeconomic aspects are complicit, most recently the hurricanes that hit the Gulf of Mexico and slowed down the recovery of Brent production.
By the way, Crude oil has dropped a few points in the last two sessions,...
Quick update on crud oil (the investment is on the "CRUD" ETC as you well know).
No fundamental news from OPEC, so let's analyze the chart, because we have reached an important point.
After the retracement practically lasted from 6 to 20 July, the price with a classic "V shape" is returning to the 5.80 area.
I highlighted a similar situation in the past when in...
While the debate between inflation vs deflation continues, I'd prefer to focus on the data and the price action, We've seen a lot of inflation in the data, which has been reflected across the commodity complex. The 2 laggards have been Coffee and Natural Gas.
Now this may well roll over as growth slows in Q3 (mathematically it has to)..but given another CTRL -...
Soya oil should be trending up even 2022+, even according to worldbank it is a commodity with upward move (intependend to inflation or not).
www.worldbank.org
But currently we have an MACD divigency, which may show a larger drawdown... I add an alert for later.
Interesting pattern forming in Coffee. After a long "Rounded Bottom" a Handle has emerged that looks to be consolidating. Will be interesting to watch in the coming days to see if this pattern can be sustained - macro support from weakening USD and supply side constraints will support continued momentum.
Riesige positive Divergenz im Wochenchart und vermutlich zeitnaher Bottom bei den zyklischen Linien. Zudem ist Kaffee inflationsbereinigt etwa so teuer wie im Jahre 1975!
Akkumulieren JETZT!!!
G. Hunkeler
