In a most interesting turn of developments, the previously mentioned key low of $38.21 did turn out to be a significant pivot point for USO. I say this because the US stock market was closed through Monday yet futures markets were trading. Crude Oil itself did violently gap lower through the Sunday evening session but by time today's retail trading rolled around...
After hitting my first downside target (38.2% retrace of the move up from $37.00) prices continued to work their way lower. They ultimately touched the 200sma, the 50% retrace level and came within 1 penny of touching the old breakout higher at 38.20. Prices violently reversed and momentum promptly shifted to the bulls as word that both the Sec. of State and then...
USO popping based on the recent Syria turmoil. These moves always get faded. It is in a perfect Bearish Gartley. Looking for a retrace somewhere in the $36.40 range.
After yesterday's initial text book ab=cd target hit (please refer to previous posts for more on that) I didn't do much else through the trading day. Indeed, the US session was itself rather uneventful. Today, like yesterday, we gaped higher again into the US retail session. The difference today is we put in a rather well defined double top (or 'M' top), tested it...
Wow, I certainly wasn't expecting to wake up today to this. USO opened with a violent gap higher, hit the posted target ($38.91) and the failed. Remarkable!!!
Today we consolidated a good portion of the session and only in the last hour of trading did we actually turn back up. The correction itself was back to about 33% of the up move which qualifies it for a potential bullish ab=cd price pattern. Additionally, momentum has both bottomed and turned back up through the 0 line suggesting that the 'fail' status there has...
The anticipated consolidation of yesterday's late session surge was indeed both swift and violent. Price gaped lower, probed below yesterday's value highs, then reversed violently higher. Action far too violent for my small account's risk threshold. As a result, I ended up just watching today. As we head into the Labour Day weekend it seems the markets are trying...
Oil investors have enjoyed a nice rally through the summer of 2013. While we may have not seen the absolute highs, price seems a little heavy as we head into typically a seasonally tough time of year. While Oil fundamentals may remain relatively good (or even improve) considerable macro-economic risk is shortly on the way out of Washington. Additionally, the idea...
Today USO continued to press higher through most of the session. I was able to take advantage of the rally from the open and finished my trading day around 9:30AM pst and up 91 ticks (paper pre my Aug. trading plan). After three sessions of almost no activity it was nice to see a bunch of profitable trades. I do see that another wave higher occurred through the...
The must anticipated OTE long sweet spot (103.65) was hit today amid the EIA and FOMC events. A new 15m bull momentum divergence has put a bit of a floor in the market. The 'stop to trail' level was hit on the 15m 'bot' short (short from 37.40 and when price traded to 37.07, stops should have been changed to 'trailing' by no more than 15 ticks) so it is currently...
Oil is going to make its seasonally adjusted pullback to lower levels taking USO with it. The set up is already a nice downward channel with a double top confirmation. Look at Sept puts at 35, 36,37. Could drop as low as 33 making a stop at 35 for support before continuing downward
The correction in USO forecast over the weekend playing itself out. Those able to handle the risk, were given a nice 3 bar bearish reversal to establish shorts around $38.25 at about 7:15 AM pst today. The 'trail to stop' level was hit (66% of the anticipated move) so those who took the trade were most probably stopped out at a nice little profit shortly...
Here is more of a case study I would like to be able to refer to at a later date. Within the general move higher in energy prices over the past week, there were multiple long signals given along the way. Using my preferred trading tool (AB=CD price patterns) one can clearly see at least 3 long setups. Interestingly, if all had been taken appropriately, the net...
This past week saw energy prices (as measured by the ETF - USO) move steadily higher on both geopolitical concerns and a larger draw down in US inventories then expected. Internal momentum would suggest this market is not as strong as price would imply and ought to spend some time 'cleaning itself up' before any new long positions should be considered. I for one...
Been wanting to Short USO for a while. Egypt can mess this up. But it is stuck in a solid downwards price channel with all indicators signalling downward movement. I'm looking at the Sept 21 puts at 35 strike. Will sell near the money
