There are no bad bonds, only bad prices. So Dan Fuss, Loomis Sayles’ vice chairman, has often observed—a lesson gleaned from more than six decades of experience managing corporate bond portfolios. After what seems likely to go into the books as the worst first half of the year for fixed-income markets on record, prices now look a lot better from the standpoint of...
They almost always trade exactly the same.
And HYG has NEVER gone down without oil going down.
Until right now.
Wonder how long it will take to correct.
This is an opinion from space view. (Monthly charts since inception)
HYG bounced off massive down trend line. Its sleeping just under the support line off all previous down turn in SP500 since 2009. Are we out of the woods? Is there a liquidity a problem? Stores are packed and prices are going down and stabilizing. I think oil is the last thing to stand in the...
This is a monthly chart of the HYG with RSI. It hit an extreme low level on RSI only a few times in the last 12-13 years. The other times are March 2009, January 2016, December 2018 and March 2020. During these times, the equity market had rallied back up to all-time high after a correction or bear market. This could be a potential market bottom again and a buying...
Whenever HYG is moving down, it is telling us that the risk is off in the equity market. It is true for the current market condition.
When this bottoms, then the market will bottom.
The Corporate bond market got extremely oversold and it bounced without the Fed having to pivot. Essentially the market got to 2013-2018 levels, and bounced nicely at the old support. But we still don't know whether the bottom is in or now, as there are more questions that need to be answered, like: Does the market expect the Fed to reverse course soon? Does the...
Although stocks fooled around all day yesterday until they were bought off, high-yield bonds rose, breaking further and further from the lows.
This once again underlines our thesis that the demand for government bonds is caused not only by the desire of investors to escape from risk (as some people think), but by the confidence that the worst is over.
Because...
I wanna just short everything that moves. junk bonds look like 1929 free fall, when they break first support gonna be ugly.
Fed is gonna squeeze us to our knees. if everything so good why junk bonds not mooning lmao.
Implode quick (vix 80) to start recovery sooner. bruh this recession can be spotted by blind man.
xoxo
Bond yields often broadcast a pulse on global economic and geopolitical events long before the equities markets! Most market observers are already keeping 10yr Tsy yields on their radar, and of course the 3mth Bills/10yr Tsy spread as the key indicator of curve 'steepness' or 'inversion'. But especially as the Fed starts unloading bonds from its balance sheet,...
HYG / LQD weekly chart shows a breakout above the March 2020 former broken support which was tested as resistance in March 2021 and could even be called a cup and handle.
High Yield is commanded from this bonds because they are considered higher risk.
So with all the geopolitical and rising rates concerns, this seems contrary and signals that we may be in a...
With credit conditions starting to deteriorate currently,(mostly in Europe) high yielding debt will definitely be most negatively affected, especially after the first rate hikes from the Fed. Another great opportunity here to go short. The structure shows clearly a developing Wyckoff distribution similar to the one of Bitocin just before it crashed to 30k last May.
It's only Wednesday, but the weekly perspective on this ratio of high yield "junk" bonds to government treasuries is currently painting "Go" conditions. Often used as a proxy for overall market risk, the ratio trends higher when investor demand for high yield bonds is greater than their demand for government treasuries. The concept then is a rising ratio shows...
JNK/TLT is equal to HYG/TLT
IWM/SPY
IWM/QQQ
BTCUSD is a newer one. Time will tell if it holds up.
"Risk on" means risk on 'outperforms' risk off.
It does not mean risk on goes up and risk off goes down. They can move in the same direction.
HYG is now in the last wave within this decline or correction . this is the last neg for the markets. for this down leg . and we are now ready to see the mark go from BEAR PHASE target date jan 27 plus or minus 1 day . We now rally I will post . DO NOT BE SHORT
HYG can be used as a proxy to indicate health of U.S. credit markets, which is an economic backbone. Since my recent post about macro indicators, HYG has fallen further. You can see on chart that every move below 84.00 corresponds with a market downturn. So if January stock market declines happened as HYG kept going below 86 and 85, you can imagine greater...
Inflation cpi near 7%, future potential rate hikes, FED reducing future purchases. Why would ne money be excited to jump in and buy up riskier paper at rates near 4-5% and stocks in a bear market? At what interest rate and risk premium are junk bonds attractive?
