Recent declines in the dollar have previously lead to large rallies in DBA. As of yet the current decline in the dollar has not done much for DBA, however I anticipate this to change soon if the dollar continues the current pull back through the summer. A retest of the ~88-89 level on DXY may be coming and if so, DBA may break out of the current down trend which...
Looking like this might have finally turned around, at least for the short term. We'll wait and see if it breaks its trendline and holds, and then there's resistance at the 50dma, which it needs to break thru to consider it truly a long option.
DBA Agriculture ETF
On 3/3/14 it broke out from the 25/2/2008 downtrend line
channel (blue). On the recent correction, it rejected nicely
the 20 sma, above the line(circle).
The recent rise, may be attributed to a somewhat rising
inflation expectations since Jan14', and a general
bear market commodities rally ( also late cyclical sector ),
which could be...
Agriculture is outperforming everything: US debt, emerging markets equity and debt, US equities, FTSE, gold, oil, copper, bitcoin....pretty much everything. I'm not buying because I've got other opportunities I'm focused on, but I think this trend still has legs.
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The DBA seems to have started it's bullish long term up wave 5/. Buy on pullback near the former line linking the tops since 2008 and corrective wave 2 target of 38.2% retracement of wave 1, near 27.50. Target of wave 3 at 35.50 with stop at around 25.45/24.95.
Needs to recover above 34 EMA on this ratio - volatile days ahed would not suprise after almost 7 weeks.
False breakdown still relevant.
Coffe march 14 with 11.11% Base Weight could be very lucrative buy just this days already.
