The rate hike on USD was about 6 months late and too little. The divergence is significant. Same thing I warned about on S&P or just about every trade.
Chart forming mild upward trend after yesterday drop
RSI still showing upward trend, confirming resistance had been formed for bullish trend,
Risk level moderate.
MOEX:NLMK
From the field of 60 = 65 you can start buying . The first target 92.00 . The second objective of 124.00 .
Very strong fundamentals of the company, are experiencing difficulties due to the current price levels for metals.
Those who live in the RUR world and trade in dollars will have a good opportunity to stock up some RURs during the last week of this year because the rouble will be quite cheap, and it will become more expensive later, so those of you who pay taxes in RUR, it could be a good idea to get a few RURs upfront, put them in a bank at a few % interest for half a year,...
Friends,
This is a key level. If price breaks the illustrated bearish confirmation on the chart, we are in downtrend territory after a long term uptrend. Which I personally hope to see.
High probability entry shorts were possible on our last trading day, for aggressive traders, conservative traders will want to wait until 64.70's level.
Best of luck.
Tom
Rusian MICEX index, measured in US dollars is on risk of another severe breakdown.
Price is now currently trading at a key level - converged lower 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means (@ 24.75)
If the level is taken out, price will be open to fall to its relevant lows @ 23
and If those are broken down, next target would be 18.5 - the 2014...
Since about 2013 Gazprom trades laterally in relation to 1-year mean, giving abundant opportunity to take mean revertion trades.
Mean revertion trade is when price goes from either 1st standard deviation from the mean to the mean itself
On the chart I have pointed out such opportunities in the past (blue arrow is approximate entry towards the mean, highlighted...
Hi All,
Here's an update on USDRUB.
Althouth the wave structure of the ascending impulse seems almost complete, there seems to be still one small wave 5 missing at the top. Please refer to the chart for more commentary on this.
In the essense, the upward movement that we have since mid May does indeed seem to be wave 5 of a larger impulse that started in...
MICEX measured in USD prices (MICEX index divided by USDRUB) has held its 5-year (60-month) downtrend test in May 2015 amid expanding volatility.
On technical basis alone, if the price holds below the 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean (now at 32.42), chances are it will retest 2009 lows (at 16.35) - which is a 50% fall in value.
What makes this...
The FX markets have been dull so far this week as we lacked a major fundamental trigger out of the Europe and US. The Grexit scenario has taken a back seat for a while, although the Greek bond yield curve is still inverted (Grexit could make a comeback anytime). The only major story unfolding this week, is about the demoralized Gold bulls, after the metal fell to...
USDRUB is on the move again - price broke put above 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) moving average on July 6th, signaling upwards probability.
The move comes in line with WTI Oil, which entered a downtrend recently (see related idea). RUB is very correlated to oil prices, as Russia's key exports are oil and natural gas.
