XHB has been consolidating within a 2-month range between March’s 35.01 low and the 37.31 YTD peak (March 31, 2015). While the 35.01 range support holds dips, back above the 36.59 resistance (April 16, 2015 high) would suggest basing and offer scope for further bullish momentum towards 37.31. Clearance above the latter is needed to complete the 2-month long...
Earlier this month, the idea of lumber being a signal for economic data was brought to the table (here). Lumber is not necessarily a trader’s first go-to for evaluating economic forecasts, but there is a striking resemblance in trend for lumber and the ISM manufacturing PMI data. As lumber prices dive, manufacturing data tends to do the same (and vice versa)....
Taking a little off the top at the psychological level of $100 with excess supply, lo demand, distribution & pro active selling signals. High average trade size today indicates trading desks were active. I didn't check LOW yet as it is not a holding. Just managing risk and will use an option strategy also. Targets noted. This may play out in January. Time to...
Housing SUCKS. This is the SLOW season coming up, to make it worse. New housing apps down to lowest level in forever, everything about housing SUCKS. GREAT SHORT HERE. Update 11/21: I was a little early on this short! I was happy to buy a few cheap $33.5 weekly puts for next week. I typically don't like to buy options at the end of the week to carry into the...
Home prices are falling, less and less applications for homes, and rising interest rates... nothing is going well for the housing hangover...
I wrote back on 5/4 on my blog that "I'm standing by XHB" that I thought the negativity around housing was excessive and higher prices would eventually come our way. Some of the "smart" money on Wall Street was decisively negative. Among the stories predicting the fall in stock prices of the home builders included this one from Friday the 23rd. Big investors...