This indicator measures bollingerband width to compare how tight the market has compressed at different times in history. These compression indicate massive accumulation of positions and once the market is decided they will trend for weeks or months. This price chart is the all-time LTCUSD price chart, before there was even a LTCUSD market (the LTCBTC pair goes...
volatility in oil and the recent sell off in oil is causing airlines stocks to be volatile as well. VA is an undervalued stocks by many metrics, however technical analysis showed the lack of demand from this stock. Combining the rising wedge, bearish divergence, and market volatility, I am expecting a decline over the next few weeks. However, if it breaks it's...
If you are interested, my entry point on this trade is the first image (based on daily technicals), as you can see Risk to Reward is pretty much fantastic and so are the reasons for entry (that support line has worked since 1995) A clear pattern for a H&S is forming, the current price is bouncing off of the 38.2 Fib level and lower Bollinger band, which...
If for some reason, you don't have access to Dough's Grid (which sorts underlyings by Implied Volatility Rank or IVR), you can always use the historical volatility indicator to determine the quality of volatility in the underlying instrument. Higher historical volatility equals better premium. In this particular example, I'm using TLT, whose HV hit a high of...
Trading Gartley - maybe it is not quite perfect, but I think Bollinger band is just nice D point confirmation... Another scenario might be simply AB=CD - thefore my stop is a bit outside...
This is the followup to my previous USDCAD chart, where I boldly called the top. It would seem that I was right before and now we have an interesting setup here, with a clear mode, a very low volatility topping formation in price and new lows in rgmov ahead of price. We can place a pending short entry under the weekly pivot and update it on a daily basis (it's...
The price for crude has not only been lower longer than many analysts foreseen, but prices have been volatile. With the Crude VIX (a measure of crude price volatility) well above historical range, four to five percent price swings are almost common place. The crude VIX (blue line) broke through multi-year highs as West Texas Intermediate crude fell through $65...
Sterling has been on a monster tear after mixed employment data out of the United Kingdom. Averages earnings beat expectations of 2.6 percent, printing a 2.9 percent. However, the U.K. did see a rise in unemployment even as the unemployment rate fell a tenth-percent. Traders are looking to front from any potential talk out of the Bank of England (BoE) that...
EURUSD breaks out of 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean after failing to reach the mean itself. Expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from weekly mean) hints at a possible leg of uptrend from here on. Traders an take long positions close to the upper 1st standard deviation (1.1205) and stop at the weekly mean (1.1165) No significant...
Relationship of the VIX and S&P 500. Key areas to watch on are 44-37 range on the VIX and on the RSI 51. We will not see a sustained rally on the S&P500 until the Vix RSI fails through 51 while the Vix capped under 37 level. The market will need some time to work off the volatility surge if this Asian contagion is actually over. However the market should not...
EURUSD has broken above 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days) amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean) Upside probability is apparent, and the closes target is 1 year mean (264 days) at 1.1685. Move is confirmed when price breaks above relevant highs (1.1485) Stop level is quarterly mean (at...
Natural gas is trading sideways within 1st standard deviation on quarterly basis (in relation to 66-day mean) since May 2015. This creates good trading opportunities for those who know how to deal with the lateral chop in the markets. Within compressing volatility (measure by 3.2 st deviations from the same mean), traders can pick longs and shorts toward the...
Price is trading below but close to lower 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility, which hinds that it has a bias to break down further and enter a leg of a downward move. The leg will be confirmed if price breaks relevant lows (at approx 0.73400). Thus purely on technical basis it is a good idea now to take a short position...
USDCAD has broken above the 1st standard deviation from its weekly (120-hour) mean on Wednesday (June 22) amid highly compressed volatility. Since then USDCAD trades above the 1st st deviation, while the weekly volatility shows clear expansion, which indicates more upside probability purely on technical basis. It is thus possible to look for long positions at...
Gold is currently severely attacking a long term support zone made up by the confluence of multiple support lines both horizontal and oblique. If the breakout is confirmed and the price respects the projected supports breakout series initiated early 2013 we can expect the price to drop as low as 970$/ounce. Though the technical picture is pretty bearish, the...
I do like this trade a lot. There is some "interesting" support from early 2015 which LOCO could pause at for a bit. Don't be chicken to take this trade though. Nice squeeze, there is a gap down. Likely going to play this with shares because options do not move that well on LOCO...
Take a look back to check out what happens when RSI 2 is below 2.5, we have movement or a close below the lower BBand, and for an added bonus, when traditional RSI 14 is in the 40 or below range. The key to this setup is to not get greedy. Once that mid BBand line is crossed, it's time to tighten the stops. Let it ride. If you're a little cautious, sell when...