higher price, lower RSI and lower MACD. looks pretty tired to me, looking for 27.5 by end of the week. Playing w/ may20 28 puts.
Vacation in Europe over the next few years will be cheap for the Americans. Those who say the us dollar is on the ropes aren't looking at a chart correctly, I guess. This C wave up will be one of the most important financial situations for 5-6 years. Monthly Slow Stochasitc is fully embedded bullish so betting against it is a fools errand in my opinion. C waves...
Yet the market rallies. Small retracement of the DXY... Last time the fed raised rates by 50bps in 2000, DXY hit highs. I believe we still have room for upside. Possibly taking out the high of 1984. With certain commodities being as volatile as they are, no reason the dollar can't see 40 year highs. I dont trust this rally- not yet.
$UUP has remained strong since my last posts. It seems like rallies in the SPY are short lived once the Dollar ticks up. A break above 104 wouldn't be a pretty sight for the markets.
Incredible Demark confluence on DXY. Monthy+Weekly+Daily+4hr TD9's. Never seen this before. Either we roll hard here and risk rallies (alongside gold, commods etc) or it's 2008. My moneys on the former
The Nasdaq 100 is closely correlating to a number of Instruments - LQD UUP (DX< DXY) and TLT. JNK to a lesser degree as well. TLT has served to be the better of these corollaries. ____________________________________________________________________________________ I am waiting for a capitulation even in TLT with 10-year yields reaching 3%+ to 3.265 as the...
UUP isn't too far behind either. BTC is under 40k- has been weak all week. I still think, if the dollar remains strong, why wouldn't this be bullish for companies that are sitting on a ton of it? AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT etc. It would seem overseas bonds would look attractive at this point given the slaughter they have been receiving.
This doesnt look good for Bitcoin. This could be the beginning of BTC to retest 20k level if the dollar keeps spiking. Commodities at all time highs, the USD is needed globally... much sooner then they need Bitcoin. Until commodities are paid in BTC, the Dollar will remain strong with EUROPE / Global uncertainty
#TLT #HOURLY #MORNING #STAR #REVERSAL #PATTERN #MONDAY @financialbuzzgu :TWITTER
UUP shows strength on daily and so on weekly chart and currently bullish. That also reflects on Oil prices heading higher.
This is a long term monthly chart of the US Dollar. There was a bullish divergence back in the 1980's that preceded a long term strengthening dollar throughout the 90's. There's a bearish divergence that started in 2014 and is intact today. I don't like to put to much emphasis on inter-market analysis because it can cause paralysis by analysis. However, wouldn't...
Idea for DXY: - Falling Wedge Breakout, Re-test and confirm rising ML Channel. - Likely USD enters an uptrend, risk assets see corrections. - Forecasted DXY bounce May 23: GLHF - DPT
Idea for UUP (S2): - Fed moving rate hike expectations forward. - August Jackson Hole meeting will see the Fed begin 'talking about tapering' (even though they have been tapering for a while), why wait until then? Smart money will move before then. - Brazil hikes rates. EM's will first race to hike rates. - Fed and ECB will have to move by EOY. - Technical Double...
Idea for DXY: - Why there may be a dollar squeeze into Q4 2021: - June 30, G-SIB banks begin stock buybacks. - Capital returned to investors nearing $200bn as estimated by Barclays. - $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits. - "With a 5% SLR minimum at the holdco level, banks run 20-times leverage, which means that $10...
Long UUP shares for 12% of portfolio 2.2N frequency stop
Speculation for Macro: I argue that price and consumer price inflation do not influence equities as much as the dollar. Investors who are betting on stocks because of 'inflation' will be in for a shock. Yields indicate we may be entering stagflation. Economic slowdown and rising dollar will prove a stronger force than consumer price inflation. After all the...
𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $DXY Daily. Has broken out of its cup and handle. A move towards 95 (and 97) is possible $UUP $EURUSD $USDJPY $EEM $GLD $BTC $TNX $TLT $SPY $QQQ #ElliottWave #Trading #Currencies 💱