EURUSD - Short with target 1.1330 followed by 1.1290. Stop loss above 1.14 Momentum has turned bearish with several clues: RSI lower lows candle bars lower closes shooting star candlestick on the last hourly. Simple, will it hold?
Looking for a healthy retrace of DXY. USD strength is overdue, and this month bulls need to step up.
Double top followed by 0.618 retracement after the break of the "v" point of the tops. This also coincide with the highest high (opening) of candle seen 2017-04-23 Makes nice structure, the V point together with the opening high, and the 0.618 fibonacci. Lets see where this bus takes us. Two targets set up.
Inverted head and shoulders may form. Medium to long term, USD is fundamentally bullish based on monetary policy divergence, USD shortage, increasing term premia on US 10Y Treasuries.
My reasons for entry: 9 daily rejections, not counting the previous top 27/2 makes this case interesting. The inverted hammer after the double top formed tells me that we have a potential fall to the downside to profit from.
A series of lower highs, inside a big triangle / wedge (see daily or even weekly timeframe) we could see a bearish rotation down to the bottom of the wedge. Coming from a historically strong and significant resistance area (1.2555) I see a potential bearish ride down to 1.2300 and possibly further. While venturing down I'm looking to lock profit after passing...
Looking at the 4 hour chart we have found resistance at historically strong support and resistance zone. Price did not manage to close above 1234.00 despite several attempts. Right above us we find a 0.618 fibonacci retracement. Looking down at the hourly we also see a 2618, a double top (which also can be seen on 4h) followed by a 0.618 retracement after...
We have hit a historically strong and stubborn support & resistance zone, a psychological round number 1.2400, a 0.618 fibonacci retracement of X-A, and our momentum has been weakening - and even broke to the downside. Now its time to jump on the bear train again! Or at least I am. Targets are marked on the cart, with a potential zone which we may very...
Following up on last weeks successful prognosis () I now enter a short position, aiming for 1.0620 with first target at 1.0700. This is could however be a decision point for entering a strong bullish move , but I use the double top forming at B (see historically strong point at Z) before we make that move upwards. Tight stop loss on this one, as a break above...
Fundamentally USD is still supported. Today the 61.8% retracement offers a good entry.
Great time to scale in to USD longs Dovish Fed hike won't stop term premia returning to historical norms. This is bullish for USD and bearish for USTs.
We have run into two different things here. Firstly we have the 1.0700 psychological level where price seems to have found resistance. Secondly, we have a 61.8% fibonacci retracement of Z to X. Combined with these two we are currently in overbought condition. I'm looking to profit from this breather with a rather tight/risky stop loss.
Massive head and shoulders pattern on monthly chart. We may test all time lows at 1.05.
Short - rejection from 0.76 round number and 38.2% retracement of the down leg. Fundamentally there is monetary policy divergence between RBA and Fed which supports this trade. Hedge with AUDJPY longs from current levels.
Buy gold at spot. Add at key levels: 1205, 1180, 1150. Hedge with shorts on AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD (since these are risk-on trades). I think this will be the perfect way to play 2017 - long USD, long gold.
10 year yields. 2.30% level has been very supportive. Breakout of the wedge will mean uptrend will continue. Fundamentally this is supported by higher term premia being demanded, and Chinese flight capital leaving the UST market. I'm long USD and will add to my positions if 10 year yields really start to move a lot higher.
Basing this setup on: Violated support -signal Violated trendline -signal Structure resistance - adding to our entry Trendline resistance - adding to our entry 0.618 fib retracement - adding to our entry Moderately conservative target, above previous low - Trend continuation