I have marked out a crucial level for USDJPY, we are either going to see a pullback into this level followed by a re-test and further downside continuation or we are going to see a today a total disregard for it and a push through to the upside suggesting the break below was a fake-breakout to trap even more sellers.
This pair formed a strong support level on the lower timeframes, we then saw manipulation that trapped sellers. I would assume a reaction when it next touches the structure level marked, It will either reject immediately and bounce or we may just see a complete breakthrough, time will tell. I have no bias for the moment but it will be interesting to watch.
The 105 - 105.10 area has acted as a pivot for USDJPY lately and I expect a reversal from the current rally.
I have entered into a short at 104.86 ahead of the 104.96 fibbo resistance just in case we do not make the 105 pivot area.
I will sell another clip at 105.10 area if we get there and stop around 105.30 for all.
From a fundamental point of view, UST's ($...
I expect a final push into the key level marked before we see any signs of a sell off. This is a good area to place a buy limit because it is an order block region and the SL is protected by the ascending trendline.
Sentiment Data - 66% Long
COT Data - 64% Long
Price dipped as expected from my previous analysis. The price action tested the inclined resistance of the descending triangle. Market is currently printing the Head and shoulder reversal pattern. A breakout below the neck line support will be a bearish signal ↘️.
Fundamentally speaking the odds are stacked against USD and towards the safe haven Yen.
USD = -6
JPY - 23
GDP Diff = Short bias
IR% Diff = Short bias
International Trade = Short bias
Stock Market = Short bias
USD COT = Short
JPY COT = Neutral
Trend = Short
We saw an impulsive breakout of the consolidation phase and are now are witnessing a pullback. The significant trend line is being re-tested and it looks like we as seeing signs of rejection which could indicate a continuation of the bearish movement.
I have marked my bearish targets I am interested in.
COT Data - 53% Long
I put together this chart to show you that in reality, all we are seeing is indecision. We should be patient and wait for the market to show us its clear direction. Once we see a break either way, I will be looking to buy/sell from the re-tested structure to the targets marked.
COT Data - 54% Short
IG Client Sentiment - 59% Bullish