64.18, which is the 261.8% fib expansion level acted as a strong support earlier this month. The daily RSI shows higher bottom formation. With that in mind, one should watch out for a rebound from 64.18 levels, although only a subsequent break above 64.80 (Apr 20 high) would signal the bear trend has bottomed out there and could yield test of supply around 65.21...
Short at 64.70 Target 59.5 Stop 66.71 Risk to Reward: 1:2.5
The pair has found support around 64.76 (227.20% Fib extension). Today's positive candle would confirm a bullish price RSI divergence and open doors for a technical correction to 65.20 and 65.61 in the short-run. Also watch out for the breach of the descending trend line on the daily RSI. That would add credence to the bullish price-RSI divergence
INR is on fire following ruling party BJP's victory in Uttar Pradesh elections. The monthly chart suggests a dovish Fed could yield a sell-off to the monthly 50-MA 63.33 levels. That means a 200 pip drop.The move could happen in a day or two if the Fed keeps the rates unchanged.
USDINR 2 hour SPOT (and not Future) chart. If you look at longer term charts, the downmove in USDINR was corrective. It now looks like an ED type of pattern (Purple lines) with multiple divergences on MACD/Fisher. A test of 66.56 to 66.58 would complete the pattern.
Happy to see INR covering some ground. Will this free fall of @USD, will it test Yearly support line of 2016 of 66.5?
Another interesting trend-line presents as the reality dawns upon markets that the dollar may be rolling over.
Last week USD showed weakness against other major currencies except INR (#USDOLLAR - Dollar Index). Strange to see Indian currency not gaining against USD in-spite of good economy data. Setup even indicates further depreciation in INR. Watch for breakout!
Trend Correction is Getting Over, IT has started to look weak, TCS is at Upper Trend Line and at Major Resistance, Volumes are lower op Trending Up, Target Can be of Around 2000, 1700 with short from around 2400.
Fundamentals - 1.. High Deposit Rate, Low Credit Growth 2.. NPA Crisis 3.. Low Intrest Rate = Low NII 4.. Scams in Banks 5.. Property Rates Going Down 6.. Global Sell Off Imminent Technicals - 1.. Second Mountain + Head & Shoulder in Weekly 2.. Magnet Crossing Below
Their is a very good sell opportunity in nifty currently, this wave can take nifty all the way down to 7500 in near term. bank nifty will add most pressure, INR will get weaker which will act as a catalyst.
A perfect hit to the upper descending trendline. Not overbought though, still it wasn't on the last two touches.
Expecting USD/INR price should fall as rupee gains value.
Range bound movement for a week, followed by appreciation in Indian currency
@USDINR testing upper bound of wage. SHORT USDINR if resistance keeps it holding within the wage till Tuesday.