The TVC:US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed's hawkish announcement that led to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. The TVC:US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the TVC:US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish...
Welcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage
Inflation prints coming in hot(short term) because of a stalled reopening. Rumors of vaccine FDA approval in the next week. A large infrastructure package in the works, putting more money into the system sparking inflation fears.
There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement. The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time. Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive...
A timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense. We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply...
Here a very technical chart with lots of magical trend lines, very clean and easy to follow; a break above the descending trendline to the topside @ 1.85 will negate the long-term downtrend that has been in place. It will expose the September highs at 1.907 and 1.937 respectively. Price will lead sentiment and therefore a break to the topside will imply a round...
With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end. BKX breaking out will be quite a bullish set-up for the overall market: The major top in USD will help a lot here as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle... highly...
Here we go for Jackson … Fed policy is what matters this weekend and in my books markets are headed for a bearish surprise. The inverted curve is going to create a USD shortage and keep USD higher which will undermine risk assets. Fed funds are now pricing almost 100 bps of cuts by Sept 2020, though Fed talking heads are saying there is no urgency to move again....
Here we are tracking the soft floor coming in Yields once more. We have been in perfect sync with the previous legs down ahead of the Fed cut fact, now it is time once more to trade the expectation of another 25bp cut, this time in September with Trump and markets trying to force the Powell hand again. The topside of the channel will attract a lot of buying...
As time passes this looks more and more like a 5 wave decline since the October 2018 highs. We are cooking for one final sweep of the lows as liquidity begins to fade for summer. The final hurdle to clear before business will close is Fed, here tracking for a 50bp cut to kickstart the easing cycle. On the technical side; the market will have to break above...
Here tracking a 5th and final leg lower in US yields. The selloff since November 2018 has looked impulsive in nature, since we marked a 4th wave the bounce from the latest lows, the bounce has met the ABC corrective target at 2.141%. We are also capped below the 38.2% and the 50MA for those trading the 'tactical rebound into Fed'. We 'know' the price wont run...
Here we are tracking for a tactical rebound as we go into July Fed to 50-day. The rebound in payrolls last Friday is weighing on market expectations for a 50bps rate cut this month. The repricing we’ve seen is closer in nature to a 25bp cut and with the short-circuit in expectations it is “loading time” again for risk-off assets. Given the circumstances a 50bps...
Over supply from the auctions should keep treasury yields rising to test the high @ 2.65 on the 10yr. Bills and 7yr being auctioned tomorrow should continue to fuel the Dow higher. $DXY might follow yields to 102 forming a right shoulder depending on the data tomorrow and Friday.
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards :) Aaron
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron