This is an update regarding my breakout idea from the weekend. Today the yields failed to push below Friday's low and we got a close back above the trendline. Price is being supported ahead of Trump's speech tomorrow. There's a possibility bulls can push back towards 2.500 this week. I am residing with slightly bullish on the Dollar until further confirmation....
I have been bearish on the Dollar for the past few weeks. Even with good US economic data the yields have been selling off aggressively breaking the wedge. My target for US yields is the weekly gap and I expect the dollar to fall below 100.00 in the coming weeks. I'm expecting a retest of the lower trend line on the yields and continuation of the bearish sentiment.
Over supply from the auctions should keep treasury yields rising to test the high @ 2.65 on the 10yr. Bills and 7yr being auctioned tomorrow should continue to fuel the Dow higher. $DXY might follow yields to 102 forming a right shoulder depending on the data tomorrow and Friday.
I think UJ is due for a bullish move based on the yields rising.
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards :) Aaron
Bond yields are moving in accordance with changes in term premia. A normal mean-reversion of term premium on the 10 year Treasury should maintain bearish bias. After the sharp sell-off in bonds with little-to-no retracement, a correction was to be expected. Thus, bond prices are moving as expected.
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron