Ill will make another video to finish the update soon. I had a phone call and had to end the video.
Idea for Bonds: - US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune. - Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes. - Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use...
Idea for MOVE: - Bond markets seeing volatility after the Quad Witching and FOMC double whammy. - US02Y 2x ATR spike: - Expecting turbulence the rest of the month. GLHF - DPT
Let me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of...
Flattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway. ↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support ↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a...
A timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long...
Forecast for Macro: - Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested. - Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations: - 2x ATR spike in US02Y: - The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y. - Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish: - However, this will...
A couple of things to note here as the chart clearly shows the attempt of a break on the log-chart. We now know Sellers are attempting the strategical and important pin on their opponent. It is clear the inflation trade is deteriorating, and in the most profound sense looks rather like a deeper mission that is underway. On the technical side, the next levels in...
📌 ridethepig | Game, Set and Match! In order to inform ourselves about the dangers of this move, we shall in what follows point to a few live charts which we called live together from 2019 that the 2s5s was going to invert frantically , and was a bad sign. It enables occupation of the dominos, which for those following long enough will know the one thing...
Jaw is getting bigger and bigger.
The bond market can be quite tricky. In terms of yield curves consider the following: Bear steepening Bull Steepening Bear Flattening Bull Flattening > Steepening (the premium for longer debt is growing) > Flattening (the premium is shrinking) For example, bull steepening, which is exactly what we have been doing this since the start of this...
📌 Endgame in the economic cycle and illustrating a painful recession Yields had the opportunity to move and successfully played the 'elastic band' rejection from the inversion in 2019, which despite the length of the global CB combination, can be expressed in no other terms than reckless. FED was obviously aiming for the ideal position (the frontal defence from...
#YIELD #CURVE WHERE ARE WE? The big melt up could still happen...but I would be cautious what you wish for. History doesn't favor bulls here.
The recession is being reflected in prices.
The U.S. 10 Yr. Yield Jumped over 5.2 BP to +7% , following a full in prices post debate. This is the highest since sept 18th.
📌 Yields are clearly hesitant to subscribe to the V shapers in Global Equities. An important observation in an extraordinarily difficult trading environment. The 0.90% - 0.50% range is clearly defined and from time to time we have had to get involved with a gentle grin and attempt to play both sides. The 0.50% lows are 🔑 for this battlefield, as long as...