As a trend trader, this is getting beyond silly now. I'm tired of only playing lower TF charts due to ranging on higher ones! Long story short: - ADX is still well below 20, which signals a lack of trending momentum. So any moves will likely be temporary and fairly shortlived. - D+ (bullish) made the last high above 20, so I'm only really looking for shorts at...
My previous bias was still short, but price moving above 57.75 yet again invalidated this. 57.75 is now my new line in the sand. Above I'm after longs, below I'm after shorts. A couple of interesting things to note: - D+ is above 20 yet again, indicating the bulls are showing some strength and might have woken up from their multi-month coma. - Ichimoku...
As per my daily analysis, it's pretty much a coin flip right now as long as we're stuck in this 54.0 to 57.5 range. ADX has consistently dropped off since the last low, so I don't really trust this last up trend. I'd really want price above 57.5 to consider any sustained long trades towards 70-80. ADX, D+ and D- are all hovering pretty close to the 20 level....
My longer timeframe bias is short, but looking at this daily chart, it's a total coin flip. ADX, D+ and D- are all below 20 which basicaly screams "no clue what to do, stay out". Often markets will range when that happens, at least until momentum picks up. So while I favor shorts at the moment, I'm not exactly expecting longer sustained moves in either...
Ever since Jan 2015, the bulls have gained a bit of strength. Having said that, momentum's been dropping ever since they've started sitting in the driver's seat. Also, it seems to be a baby bull with not that much momentum behind it. So overall, this still looks bearish to me with D+ not even above 10 and Ichimoku screaming "short" at me. Personally, I think...
So the 2nd large oil crash in 10yrs just took place last year. The first one happened during the financial crisis and was the result of people expecting less demand for oil as the economy collapsed and tons of people lost jobs. The 2nd crash was supply-lead as excess supply lead to a drop in prices. Remember when oil hit 90 and people said it had bottomed out?...
My line in the sand is 54.50 . Above, I'm after longs, below, short's my preferred option. If price stays around the current level during the first few days of next week without taking off north, my line in the sand will be readjusted to 56.00 .
So we have the end of wave 2 at 54.73 and the beginning of wave 3 of a new 12345 growth cycle. Wait for the end of microwave C at 57.2 and take a long position to 63.
Pretty clear by now, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) have been developing a megaphone-like consolidation since January, 2015. The new lows made just a week ago is positively diverged, without having new lows on RSI which is a big buy signal. Open: 46.61 S/L: 45.20 T/P: 54.11/ 58.77 Dollar analysis: In my opinion, the Baker Hughes Rig count is nothing more...
Brent crude. Already broke through the support level of$ 55 and tested it on the classics. He was not a special technical obstacle. More meaningful to prices was the level of support 53,90-54$. He was broken, but later it took another shopping day for fixing prices for them. Now, most likely, we will see a correction to this level(53,90-54$), after which the...
So, we reached the goal at 52.7 – the end of sub-wave 5 of wave C. That point is turning point – start of new 5-3 Elliott cycle. In this view we wrote down sub-waves i and ii of wave 1 at 53.9. (Sub-wave ii may rich 53.7 – 0.618 of Fibo) Long position to 56.4 – end of sub-wave iii of wave 1. Wave 1 will rich 57.
There are two ways, go to 54.0$ then turn up or go deeper to 51.8-52$ and than Up?
Short Brent to 52. It seems that Brent is writing sub-wave v of wave C till the shown point at 52 (0.382 of Fibo retracement). But it is still possible to turn up from 56 (0.618 of Fibo) because of trend line (red dashed line) - watch carefully ;) But in that case wave C is too short in theory... I would take short position after crossing red dashed trend line.
An overlay of the chart of WTI and brent oil prices over time, I thought it'll be pretty interesting to share this. How geopolitical and the American shale oil boom is shaping up the differences.