Short Trade > DEBIT SPREAD Buying Put Vertical (Bear Put Spread)
This is a Swing Trade, starting small to be able to scale in in different levels.
ES x -1 JAN 20 3900 PUT (Sell)
ES x 1 JAN 20 3950 PUT (Buy)
For now:.
MAX RISK = Debit Paid (-$750.00)
MAX PROFIT = +$1.750
*This option trade, swing to the buy side, helps us to mitigate the THETA BURN and...
TP1>
if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4078, we can test > 4108 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221
TP2>
if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4078 > we can test > 4054 > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped)
Volume Profile 12/14/2022
- Unfair High 4091 (Below Y High) FOMC DUMP, and no BUYERS.
Volume accumulation setup > It is forming since...
The picture above is a LOTTO PLAY I took this morning, end up buying 4250 ES CALL 6DTE for an avg of $11 at 8:07am (we were trading around 4054 level) , after the report in 2 minutes ES spiked to 4180 and my options price went to $30 Great I was up +160%, but with IV CRUSH + MKT HEADING LOWER 50 points before the bell, my OPTIONS that I got before 8:10am were...
I decided to close all my NAKED PUT trades instead of Hedging with $SPY, the reason to that is the move tomorrow can offset my HEDGE if goes against me, even with Beta Weight Portfolio.
So in this case I will reestablish all positions once we are over with the uncertainty, and that's until FOMC (Wednesday 2:00pm).
New Trade $DIS
Naked Put
Strike $75
Premium $0.43 x 3 contract = $129.00
Adding to the previous contracts at the same Strike 75 for a total credit of $563.00
New Trade $TSLA
Naked Put
Strike $99
Premium $0.41 x 3 contract = $123.00
Adding to the previous contracts Strikes 96 and 98 for a total credit of $563.00
New Trade $TSLA
Naked Put
Strike $110
Premium $1.05 x 1 contract = $105.00
Adding to the previous contracts Strikes 120 and 113.33 for a total credit of $548.00
THETA MACHINE UPDATE
No New Trades Today
I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day.
Overall POP = 84%
POP = Probability of Profit
*Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13).
With that said, I will...
