I've seen a lot of predictions for this cycle. From zero to 1 million. The most commonly believed (and dare I say supported?) forecast is 100k. While I think 100k is feasible for many reasons, particularly because stock 2 flow, fibonnaci and EW would support it; I am erring on the side of a more conservative forecast here around 88k. The reason I'm slightly...
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a statistician. I am not a trading/investing expert. I am a wildlife biologist. This is just a regurgitation of my research, thoughts, and opinions, along with my attempt at having fun with numbers to create an incredibly speculative model for Bitcoin’s future price action. Hang in there folks, this is a long one....
Sharing my observations here, it may come true, or not... Putting LOG Fibonacci lines on a LOG scale, some things are remarkable! TOP - The first big Bull run after a Halving starts with a rise from the S2F (463d) St. Dev 4x. This is happened already. - Previous 2 occasions, when the S2F (10d) touched the S2F (463d), the major bull run...
Analysis based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, an analysis of price action following previous mining reward halving, and the general ascending price channel. Additional context on stock-to-flow (S2F) model can be found via Google (cannot post links in description) Disclaimer: entertainment purposes only.
Price action relative to inflation halving Here is a Copy of the Chart: gview.com/chart/9soG0Sv6/
Updated Bitcoin price prediction using the logarithmic regression curve and Plan B's original Stock to Flow. This should be a base case scenario for 2021.
According to PlanB's Stock to Flow Cross Asset Model (S2FX), Bitcoin (BTC) is still undervalued by 35% as of now and the fair value of Bitcoin will climb further in the next month. The S2FX model predicts a Bitcoin price of around 280k USD by end of 2024 at latest. What we saw in the last weeks is a lot of buying activity of institutions like Microstrategy,...
Biggest W pattern formed, S2F models
This is based off of stock 2 flow and statistical bands. In prior cycles, the cycle high tends to head towards the low range of the top s2f bands. The next s2f band bottom is 200-250k. This would be a blow-off top. The fair value could be more around 80k. I think the blow-off top will be more conservative than prior cycles because of mature money entering. Bigger...
Using a non-linear logarithmic regression, we can project the price of Bitcoin towards the future. Seems consistent with the Stock to Flow price and reveals much more upside as time goes forward.
This is a humble idea for this current bitcoin cycle. I took 3 previous cycles and projected their avarage differences taking S2F targets as a reference. I noticed the (small) possibility of two main peaks: one during the end of 2021 and one for the end of 2024. I can't imagine a final peak during the end of 2021 because this will result in a similar cycle lenght...
As a trend investor, I made my own S2F based on the trend of the pre-halving era, 1st and 2nd halving. I added some baby curves that can cross the wicks. Pre-halving era : - Lasted more than 28 months. - Made +15602.93% from $0.07 to $10.21 in 11 months - Angle of 66° 1st halving : - Lasted 44 months (x1.5714285714285714285714285714286 more than pre-halving...
Included the S2F prices on this 4y halving cycles model. Given that the prices overshoot the S2F model we should be expecting prices around 150.000 in this bullrun, however this feels like a long shot. I'd argue that we will definitely see the 50k range this run, but anything above is yet to be seen. What do you think? In the next cycle the S2F seems to exceed...
Hello Everyone, Many of us knows the stock-to-flow ratio model (S2F), primarally published by PlanB. We know that model is only teoretical support and do not shows exact levels for the price. But can suggest, of course, "fair value" according to Bitcoin's inflation. Today we have two months since we broke long-term support and the price dropped to c.a. 3800 USD....
To predict Bitcoin’s fair future value using the stock-to-flow model I charted stock to flow median price on a halvening dates and used parallel price channel as a boundary. The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase. The lower price...
Hi Guys, I put de ranges of Plan B S2F model in my chart. The halving is next week and in the following months we will know if the model works. I hope you like it. Regards NLMarco
in my estimation, the most likely outcome for bitcoin short term is a crash leading up to OR after the halving (too much built up hype--reflected by bearish technicals), but the price should revert to the stock-to-flow pricing model afterwards within +-2 SD (i.e. 95% confidence) mid to long term, bitcoin is looking extremely bullish. there's simply no reason to...