Still in hedge short to protect US stock profits, but from the looks of $ES and $CL $USDRUB is going to 100. Could test the middle of the channel like it did last time or breakout from the falling wedge shortly. Ready to flip long.
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Since yesterday, by and large, was the first full day of working out the Fed’s emergency decision to lower the rate by 0.5%, today some results can be summed up. And they are generally disappointing for optimists. In theory, stock markets should have perked up and provoked a sharp increase in stock indices. But this did not happen, that is, there was growth, but...
Not financial advise.
Similarity between $USDTRY and $USDRUB
-Violation of symmetrical triangle
-Fib 0.705 taken out
-Clean breakout on Weekly/other Macro
Target 1: aiming for the highs, of course.
FX_IDC:USDRUB
Traditionally, we start the review with news about the coronavirus epidemic. Once again, we note that the matter is even on its scale - thousands of times more people die from ordinary flu, and hundreds of thousands of times more get sick each year. The point is the problems that this epidemic has on the global economy.
A number of key industrial centers in China...
The coronavirus epidemic is gaining momentum. At least, according to statistics. The number of deaths is already close to 100, and the number of cases is close to 3,000. China is forced to react harder. The magnitude of the effects on the economy is growing exponentially. Lunar New Year celebrations are extended for at least 3 more days.
Actually, more than one...
Wednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke...
Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience.
The...
The previous week was rich in important events, some of which can be formally classified as “game changers”, but judging by the dynamics of prices in the financial markets, the game did not undergo any special changes.
Let's start with the most global. The United States and China signed documents on the first part of the trade deal. But there was no euphoria -...
After the United States and China completed the first phase of negotiations, the result of which was not as rosy as many expected, the markets decided to take a break and continued to develop existing trends.
Note that the current optimism has exhausted itself. But the negative on the horizon more than enough. Only the first step has been taken. Now the parties...
The US and China have signed documents for the first phase of the trade deal. It would seem that this has been expected for a very long time and this is an excellent occasion for a mass exodus from safe-haven assets and another injection of capital into risky assets. But it was not there. Gold yesterday was more than comfortable, and the Japanese yen in the...
USDRUB has reached a key HTF level 60.5-61. Awaiting momentum shifts on Daily/4H to get positioned long. First target 66.5-67, Second Target 69.5-70. SL at 59.8, below physiological support at 60. Further confluence is that price is sitting on the 200 week ema which has acted as support multiple times in the past.
After the US took an airstrike on Iran and killing its top general, I have been looking for a countercurrency for USD other than Gold and Oil... and so, USDRUB was detected. Moreover, its price action gave us a convincing sell bias as it has successfully broken the weekly 200ma. This set up will be targeting 55.000 psychological level that was previously tested in...
Yesterday's opening brought gold to the highest mark since 2013. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, gold is by far the best hedge against geopolitical risks. We generally agree with this and continue to recommend buying the asset, since we believe that the mark of 1800 is an achievable goal for gold this year.
But it is much more promising trading ideas in...
In the news plan, the year began extremely unsuccessfully. The elimination of Iranian general Kassem Suleymani (he was the second most important in Iran after the main ayatollah) was headline news. We wrote about in our weekend reviews “Escape to safe-haven Assets Activated: $ 1800 Gold” and “Will the Suleyman Killing Become a Black Swan for the US Stock...
The period of the Christmas holidays is traditionally characterized by low liquidity in the financial markets (so-called “thin market”). So you can increase the level of aggressiveness in trading to the maximum due to the relatively insignificant volatility. But at the same time, the probability of flash crashes and sharp inexplicable jumps in volatility during...
