Downside breakout today from a trendline dating back to lows of 2009. It's also under the 200 week moving average. More downside ahead. Note: This small-cap indicator is often seen as a leading indicator for the large-cap S&P 500.
We mentioned this pattern before (Just Saying...see below) and the neck line has broken. If this pattern plays out we could see a visit of the 2012 support area which falls in line with the measured move. It would be a monster move but...Just Saying. ;)
We are over sold down in this area and looking for a small bounce into resistance. We will look for a shorting opportunity at the watch zone. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
We are over sold on the current down move. If you are short, it may be a good idea to tighten stops or cover positions. We are looking for for a short term bounce in the Indexes over the next two trading days...but only a short one.
According to the four main indicators I run on the indices, the Russell 2000 has entered a bear phase. I would expect a decline of about 20% to occur during 2016. Furthermore the 50day SMA is turning down after failing to re-take the 200day, and a head-and-shoulders is appearing. Check my blog for more.
If 4588 gives way on volume then 4475 will act as a magnet. Keep on the watch list.
Keep and eye on your weekly chart. If Santa can't find his rally cap then the neck line cometh
What a difference a day makes. Just when we were looking for a short (which we got) the very next the market recovered the previous days losses an then some. Was it news driven (Draghi or NFP) or is this a sign of major consolidation before a break out in the first part of January? Time will tell. However, you will need to be tactical for now...positions are...
The Nasdaq is breaking new high and the Russell and is not even close to new highs. We posted this weekly chart a week ago...is this a clue?
Tech is defying gravity. The Nasdaq broke new highs today while the Russell and S&P lag. The question begs...will the the other indexes catch up or drag the Nasdaq down? No shorting for us in these areas. We will see if we can get a break and close below the up channel (or green line around 4675)
What does this book tell us? Just saying! Time will tell.
We are watching the Russell in this area. It had a nice fake on the break but we think the Russell has not caught up yet. If she does then 1200 could be on the radar screens. If she breaks below the 1138 area then the indexes are in trouble. Keep on you watch list.
Major resistance. Upcoming significant Convergence • Retracement at Fibonacci .618 • 200sma • Trendline • Ascending bearish wedge • Stochs rolling over
Ok...we are not perfect and make mistakes. Price touched our trigger zone and we failed to get short. Bummer! We like to see price get into the zone...but its not a hard fast rule. It would have been a great trade. However, we are now back into the flag range which confirms a failed breakout. We will look to get short on any moves to the upside. ...
The Russell still has some ways to go until hitting her breakdown levels. It's lagging the $ES an $NQ. We will watch the 1152.00 area to see if price can hold. If we see price trade below this area then a squeeze could be in play. Be patient and wait for a trigger.
As with the ES...the NQ is in the same boat...although it has not broken down it's support level. If the NQ takes our support look out below. We are looking for bounces to short. NO TRIGGER...NO TRADE!
$TF_F $RUT The nested Bullish Shark and Bullish Alternate Bat patterns on $IWM suggest a move to 114.50-115 - late Q4 2014's lows - to fully build out. Objectives off a bounce there lie at nodes around 122 and 123.75. Further afield, there is the potential where resistance ~122 holds for a Bearish 5-0 to develop. $TF_F $RUT
We see some major indices in final stages of an extended third wave, that could cause a temporary high on stocks, as we expect a deeper retracement in to a corrective wave four. On some of them we also see a wedge pattern in current late stage of an uptrend. It is called an ending diagonal, that usually causes a sharp reversal that may happen sometime this year....