This is an update on my post from 25 days ago, and the dollar is still trading around 51 RUB. Looking at the RSI here, I expect to see a big green monthly candle :)
People are starting to talk about the Russian ruble again after 3 months of practically no chatter on the Twittersphere following the December RUB crisis. Amazingly, the ruble is one of the best currencies in 2015. Given the poor fundamentals in the Russian economy, I'm starting to become a bit skeptical on the potential for further USDRUB losses over the medium...
In my previous analysis "Que 2008," I likened this drop in oil similar to the one we've seen in 2008. This was based on both over leverage in the oil and equity markets, diverging fundamentals and a strengthening dollar throughout 2009 - which brought on deflation.
Prices did collapse through $60 as expected, and nobody is willing to cut production to reserve...
Return to the upward channel movement in USD/RUB, however might not return to the channel straight away and bounce from 43.163 first and then return back to the channel.
