This is the comparison of reversed Brent price dynamics vs Russian Rouble starting from Feb-2014 (CAD is provided for reference). As it can be seen Russian Rouble rate mostly followed oil prices. However starting from December RUB rate was artificially adjusted. Now it seems it's time for readjustment.
I can come up with a variety of instruments to trade based on the recent macroeconomic events, but right now I'd like to focus on these, since they give me a relatively close timeframe for the reversal date. Mark your calendars, between February the 5th and 9th, because I think these pairs will start moving strongly in the directions of these arrows. I'll post...
10,053,800 Barrels of Oil daily, Russia is the largest Oil Exporter in the world Lower oil prices forces Ruble lower, USDRUB goes higher if, $50 Oil, USDRUB hits 60.00 Ruble per USD With Ruble FX reserves, they can either intervene their currency or influence the price of Oil by Future Contracts.
Return to the upward channel movement in USD/RUB, however might not return to the channel straight away and bounce from 43.163 first and then return back to the channel.
is it time for a pullback? the daily W%R is now at its lowest level since late August; this indicates that positive momentum is weakening.