I've tried to keep it really simple when analysing this pair today. I've gone off of a basic key level breakdown, trendlines, trend continuation, and of course a little bit of Fibonacci, I've placed my stops at 1.29840 and my target at 1.36000, which offers 5 times whatever you are willing to risk, I'm hoping keeping it simple helps me to get back on track because...
Fundamentals: CHF hasn't been acting in traditional safe haven character, with global risk sentiment in the "off" position and CHF is weakening. Unsure why this is, but if you look at yield spread between treasuries and CH10 its been widening all year as treasury yields rally and CH10 yield is relatively unchanged on the year. jan2018 spread= 250bps & Oct spread =...
Recently seen risk aversion in the market with US equities almost 9% off the recent peak (SP), US 10 year yields off the highs from 3.25% as low as 3.11% where there is near term support, Traditional high yielding FX (AUD lower, NZD lower, EUR lower, GBP lower), WTI crude 14% off recent peak and safe haven flows lifting JPY, gold, silver and US bonds.
Recently USTs moved a lot lower as yields continued to push higher on inflation fears and hawkish guidance and communication from Fed. With investors and traders focusing on the 3.5% before any significant correction in stocks.
However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe...
As usual I have no crystal ball.
Overnight and into this morning, I've been watching the order-book action on Coinbase. What was striking was the amount of volume being exchanged on Ethereum compared to BTC.
In essence BTC volume appeared to be quieter than Ethereum. I'm talking about he 'buckets' of trades - not the actual amounts of money. See my 44 second...
The VIX is called the 'Fear Index'. That's for a good reason. In times of high volatility what do you do? People in general stay out i.e. they sell off and keep their powder dry, or look for safe havens. They fear for their money, even if they don't admit it.
As a trader you're told 'volatility is good for traders'. But really - is it? It depends on how extreme...
Traders we have been watching EURUSD for a while as it struggles to break above its previous highs and is sitting within a weekly resistance zone. We are looking for a break below the daily lows for opportunities for a short position. Weekly chart suggests a weekly retracement could be playing out.
FOMC last week stated they expect to hike rates 1 more time this...
EUR/USD uptrend is still very strong expecting another push past the current high at 1.20923. Risking 50 PIPS to gain 125 PIPS Good Risk ratio trade. Lets see how it plays out
Finally Never Forget that this trade can be wrong and there is a random distribution between my wins and losses so leaving all the emotion out of this trade.
Here is an at market Cypher pattern that has just completed. It's quite a large one so if you're trading this make sure you can handle that much risk!
The Risk Reward is pretty average on this trade, but with such a high win ratio it's a trade worth taking to me.
Will be looking for 2 targets to press lower into next week.
Potential Bat pattern here with the underlying trend. Gives us a good Risk Reward based on a 113% X-A stop loss. Targets are a 38.2 and a 61.8 retracement of A-D - Cannot complain with 1:2.5 to target 2.
Pattern still needs to push a little lower until it can be considered valid though so will be paying attention to it later today and if not the start...
Here is a bullish Bat pattern at market. I have labelled the legs that stand out to me and also drawn in the C-D Fibonacci retracement to show where targets are taken. Trading 2 positions and aiming for 2 different target levels.
Stop loss above X at a 113% Fibonacci retracement of X-A. With underlying trend so could aim for a third target at a retest...
Here we have a 4H Bat pattern in yellow which I've been watching for a few weeks. However, when we go down to the 1H chart there is an at market Bullish Bat which would bring us up to the 4H completion zone. Gives us an opportunity to run for a third target with a great Risk Reward (4.7!)
Here is a nice Trend Continuation Trade on GBPJPY. Made a deep retracement right back into the previous structure level which is holding. Great opportunity to enter a low risk short position with the overall bearish trend. Target would be a retest of previous lows and could use an advanced target to shoot for a 127.2 extension
Potential Cypher pattern EURCHF 4H close to completion. Pay attention for .786 retracement being hit to make it a completed pattern. Looking for 2 targets both with underlying 4H market direction (bullish)
Just been entered into an NZDUSD Bullish Bat! A little late with the publishing of this but only recently had time to check my charts.
Entry according to my rules is at the 88.6% retracement, however of course follow your specific and tested rules. Aiming for both T1 and T2 with this, and a relatively small pattern for this timeframe so shouldn't pose...