A remarkable bounce from the lows. Despite the lack of material interest, a momentum attack is in the air and it cannot be shaken off. From here till the end of 2021 there are some nice swings ahead. After breaking back up, buyers won back the tempo. Note how sellers did not make use of the discovered 'C' target lows and how they got tangled up among their...
The position arising here is another freeing move. After sellers surrender the $3,500 pivot, it constitutes for a typical cascading of stops - the squeeze manoeuvre we have been tracking for a while finally is beginning to play out. Let's start with a traditional recap of the swing we have been tracking the past few sessions; The analysis of the starting...
Clarity around the nucleus of the swing designed to restrain It is an interesting breakout we have here in the diagram, representing a major impulse (sounds nice, right?!), and so the origin is a hawkish fed and evergrande mini deal; I want to clear something up as I know there is a lot of panic on the wires with some looking at the lows. There is a major...
The best move in FX, since 2020 was the idea of early development of the base in USDJPY, let's start with a quick chart review which really got into the heart of the matter. This update is much more about the technical configuration and how to work with an impulsive move. Unlocked. As is now becoming clear to many analysts, USDJPY is playing towards the...
The mysterious selling at 1775 (or not so surprising for those who have been tracking the flows since the last diagram). This linkage was known to the pseudo-classical school of TA. The other highlights are going to USDJPY which was reckoned to be such a move to 150. The 1775 previous support has become resistance for our opponent (and if we are able to...
First, and as usual, lets start with the traditional recap... The following position has been reached and is coming around only AFTER Buyers have finished their move: respectively, the swing up into 1970/2000, which interlocked with profit taking and the Covid unwind, demanded an attack from sellers by means of switching sides. A flawless swing with a...
Will try to keep this one short and sweet.... a strong move from buyers here is decisive, sellers have given up their parry and have really been outplayed ... you should never be a slave to one side !!! The tempo is clearly in favour of bulls. The immediate threat is 114 with 118 above. Consider that above 118 there is very little in terms of resistance...
Flattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway. ↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support ↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a...
Gold - The pendulum has swung in both directions clearing all of the soft hands. In July 2020 we were talking about the highs cooking for a couple of years as the price was not quite ready to explode in the ways that some thought (towards 5,000-10,000 or etc). Sure we saw a lot of institutional interest and activity levels are still high with risk...
Updates coming here after the Jackson week Bearish JPY and looking to play versus EUR . Actively adding here as the l/term uptrend is set to resume, we can look to target fresh highs here at 134.1x and continue to expect JPY to underperform in Q3 and Q4. Indeed the break is signalling in advance that the direction is still up. Price action above 129 is...
Sequences and corrections illustrating waves for those who are not holding any live positions from below the long-term swing is becoming increasingly expensive, invalidation is clearly defined below the 'B' at 101.4x, while taking October 2018 highs 'D' should be enough to "trip the fuse" and trigger momentum towards 125 and 149.3x a multi-decade ABC...
Here in this position, it is clear that intensive work has gone into supporting the entire global recovery. Moreover, we could already count the resilience in credit as ideal results from the covid siege. But now I want to focus on the US and small caps in particular are getting to work and the advance is leading to a more palpable exhaustion leg and opening...
The positional struggle, or put simple the slow siege from sellers back to the base is finally exhausting. Powell has attacked with a move several times the strength of the surrounding defence. USD will now maintain the pressure and birth of fresh strength will unlock the next leg higher in USDMXN. Since 2018 we have been tracking the explosion higher. The...
Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor. Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance. It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to...
A timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long...
Copper: Market Commentary 23.08.2021 A couple of points to note here; we ticked the 161.8% extension which was our third wave target in our previous copper chart at the beginning of 2021. It always comes down to the same situation; an impulsive complex which can be called sound, but which has one sickly component. As we head into Jackson, according to the...
The evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows: 1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a...
For the flows here, buyers are clearly in control and have been over multiple decades - although since 2016 we have been inside a compression range which looks set to blow later in 2022. Strong support comes into play at 23,500 which should be enough to cap the outflows before continuation in a bull market towards a measure 40,000 breakout target. ↳ To the...