The dollar strength following Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls print continued in yesterday’s session which allowed the USDZAR pair to break through the blue 50% Fibo retracement rate of 17.61. The pair seems to have lost some upward momentum after hitting a high of 17.70. The rate of 17.61 will swing from a resistance to a support and a break below it will allow...
Time to reassess my position on the rand. I expected the 50-day MA rate of 17.15 to hold support for the pair during Wednesday’s turbulent session but Powell’s dovish comments regarding the Fed’s “successful fight against inflation” sent the dollar packing across the board. Equity markets staged an aggressive rally since Powell failed to decisively comment when...
The upward momentum seems to be fading as we await the open of the US session. The orange 23.6% Fibo retracement at 17.50 is a strong resistance and psychological rate for the pair and I don’t see it giving way before the major Fed event tomorrow. Over the slightly longer term I’m bearish on the rand after the pair broke above the key 50-day MA level at 17.15 and...
The rand managed to pull the pair to a daily close below the 50-day MA, yesterday, off the back of a broadly weaker dollar. There was no data driving the weakness in the greenback but it seems the weakness is stemming from the “plausible soft landing” narrative and the stable decline in US 10-year bond yield since the beginning of the year. Today’s calendar has...
Emerging market currencies are likely to outperform the US dollar this year as the risk-on sentiment prevails. The USD/ZAR price has formed a bearish channel on the daily chart and a rising widening wedge on the weekly chart. Outlook is bearish for now.
The pair broke to the upside of the 50-day MA yesterday despite minimal loses in the DXY which shows that the move was largely based off rand weakness, yesterday. The 50-day MA will swing from a resistance to a support rate and I'm looking to catch a buy entry off the re-test of the 50-day MA, currently at 17.15. Short-term take profit zone between the 38.2% fibo...
The rand managed to pull the pair below the 200-day MA, currently at 16.82, last week Thursday following the US CPI print. The pair is however finding support around its 200-day MA and the dollar strength in today's early morning session has seen the pair blast up to the blue 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.12. The macro risk-on factors mentioned below are rand...
Looking for a drop from Monthly Pivot to Monthly S2 in JAN
The DXY and the US 10-year yield fell sharply following Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report for the month of December 2021 which saw the pair reject the 50-day MA at 17.30 as well as the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 17.44. The dollar started this week on the back foot in the local session which has allowed the rand to test the...
The USD/ZAR remains in its sideways consolidation. It's perfect for Range Bounded traders. We can see the weakness in the rand came today where the start of Load Shedding Stage 4 has commenced. This isn't good for the confidence in the people and the economy. Also for foreign direct investments, this is unattractive to investors.
Price broke the support zone on 23RD of November and used same zone as a resistant zone which ended up forming a double bottom, and price went on to break the zone and formed the December highs which came back and gave a false breakout. My expectation for this pair is to test the support zone which will boost it's momentum to the highs of December, price analysis...
The USD/ZAR pair seems to be in an ABC corrective wave pattern after completing a 5-wave impulse that commenced in April this year. Following last week's presidency scare, the rand has been able to pull the pair back below the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50. Positively for the rand, it managed to keep the pair below the 50-day MA resistance rate of 17.74 and...
This was an idea I had but because this is not on my watchlist I could have never ever taken it as it would have disturbed what I set out in my rules. I quickly learned how the UZ moves and the long candles that take place within it. So if I had adjusted the SL, this would have been a great trade.
#USDZAR lots of indecision from the bulls & bears but the fact that we have had 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows on price in the last 3 weeks (weekly candles) suggests that the ZAR bears (USD bulls) are exhausted. I am expecting some rand strength in the next couple of weeks. First target 20dma at 17.17, but rising daily so 17.30 would be an approximate level to watch for.
Double Tap - two trend line confirmation. Could this be a turning point for a stronger South African Rand over the next few months
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watch for some consolidation above this 18.00 USDZAR level. If we see equity markets settling and some return to risk assets in the next few days, we could see zar move back to 17.50-17.60 in the short term. Extended strength could see us back to around 17 which would coincide with the lower end of this channel.
In this update we review the recent price action in the USDZAR and identify the next high probability trade location and price objectives to target