The move to the downside is starting to look impulsive in nature as we crack through important moving averages, supports and etc. Those who are riding it from the highs well done, the next levels for us to track is 95.86 which is the ABC sequence target from the highs last month. Any breaks below here immediately opens 94.68 for a test which would then imply (most...
Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold. In long term XAUUSD is being seen as...
On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level...
On our analysis on the 04.06 when USDJPY was at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 we advised that we would start to build a long position. The currency pair has since gone up towards 108.8 last week and consolidated at around 108.6 on the back of stronger than expected retail sales last Friday. The markets are rather subdued ahead of the FOMC meeting on...
A new decline is expected for Aud/Usd, in fact in the last sessions the price stabilized between 78.6% and 100% of the Fibonacci retracement. Speaking about the price it was between the support at 0.675 and the resistance at 0.705. Throughout the summer it should continue to lateralize in this channel as, fundamentally, both the Australian central bank and the FED...
Here tracking the flows ahead of BoC. Cad has been soft and drifted lower which has been enough for USDCAD to reach the highs in the recent range. The market sentiment which will dominate the flows today is for a supportive BoC and I remain a CAD bull for today's decision. On the trade side, Trudeau is taking the first steps for ratifying USDMCA. Cad...
We have seen USDJPY drop recently due to an increase in trade tensions between the US and China which has put downward pressure on the dollar and increased demand for the Yen which is a safe haven currency. Additionally, the expected rate cut in the US due to fears over the economy has put added pressure on the currency pair as the benchmark 10-year Treasury's...
Improved creditworthiness in the European periphery will incentivise investors (particularly Japanese) to continue shifting exposure away from risky (unhedged) US assets. An important side note is coming from US banks borrowing in Euros to help finance increased UST holdings due to tightness in the short-term USD funding markets. The move higher in EURUSD I am...
Here we are tracking a very technical move to the top of the range after positive European election results, an important hurdle cleared for those tracking the macro floor building in EURUSD. Timing wise we still have pending June ECB and Fed meetings to clear however it is just a matter of time, in my book, before Europe receives a positive outlook.The main...
Here we are trading a failure to break and clear 1.35 followed by a strong rebound. The upside is starting to look limited as the underlying flows favour bears as we enter value areas for those buying CAD retracements. On the Macro side, Poloz has emphasised the downside risks whilst remaining upbeat on the economy. He carries a belief that the slowdown is...
Here we are dissecting the moves in this second major wave for EURUSD. Those with a background in waves will know this as an ending diagonal, something we have been tracking for some time live on Tradingview. The flow is becoming very congested and choppy in nature, a perfect range trading environment (those following will know we have been trading the ranges...
Here we are tracking the final fumes of an ending diagonal count . Those following will know it is a very similar setup for those tracking EURUSD with the USD sell-off in the leg showing signs of starting earlier (see attached: "MAJOR Reversal around the corner in EURUSD") ... A side note here that the EURUSD chart may need adjusting if we do not get any fills...
We are going to dissect the moves we traded live in the Telegram and Tradingview chats using EURUSD this week. So let's get started from the beginning … On Monday those following were notified to start working longs, positioning for a short swing move towards 1.13. After failing to clear the middle of the range on Tuesday NY session meant and with the main...
A good chance for a quick update to the EURUSD chart since Fed. As anticipated, Fed leaving the target range unchanged. On the whole there are no major changes in policy, Fed acknowledging economic growth and labour market remains strong but inflation is soft below target. Cutting the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) was something we discussed live here in...
The EUR/USD currency pair is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and prices have just broken out of a counter trend (ascending channel) on the 1-hour timeframe. I expect further downside of the pair after a small consolidation (breather/correction/pause) in the form of a bear flag pattern. However note that prices might skip this stage if bears...
What we are looking to trade here is the final flow in the swing. As a catalyst for the coming months we have an important Fed remaining on hold today. The Fed funds rate rose to 2.45% this week which leaves only a 5bp margin before the upper bound in the current target range of 2.25 - 2.50%. This will raise the question on forward guidance posing the question if...
Here selling EURUSD ahead of the Brexit pantomime. We have completed the retrace since the ECB flows and it is time to start getting back to work on the sell-side in Europe. From a technical perspective, we are trading the remainder to the downside of the 2nd wave. Inside this wave 2 we have just completed an ABCDE pattern and it is time to break to the downside....
EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since...