Yesterday's dollar selloffs have more political implication than an economic one. The fact is that mid-term elections to Congress will already take place on November 6th. Since the probability of forming a polar parliament is high, the dollar was under pressure. The issue of a “split” parliament is that this will drastically reduce the chances for the...
Traditionally let’s start with an overview of past events. Yesterday, data on employment in the US from ADP were published, which are traditionally interesting to the markets in the run-up to official statistics from the Ministry of Labor, which, we remind, will be released on Friday. In view of the importance of Friday's data, we will review the report from ADP...
Yesterday was remembered, first of all, data on the GDP of the Eurozone. The data came out quite weak: +0.2% q/q against the forecast +0.4% q/q. By the way, this is the minimum GDP growth over the past 4 years. Business confidence indices in Europe also turned out to be quite weak. So, the future of the euro looks extremely unenviable amid the current economic...
Monday was not a day of big moves in the financial markets. One of the causes was the absence of significant fundamental reasons. Today in that regard looks more promising. The data on the GDP of the Eurozone is the most interesting. Expectedly, growth for the quarter will be 0.4%. The figure itself is not very impressive (almost 10 times less than the growth...
Let’s start with an analysis of key events of last week. Bank of Canada has hiked a rate by 0.25%, ECB remained the rate unchanged and the US GDP for the third quarter (provisional value) turned out higher than analysts’ forecasts (3.5% vs. 3.3%), but this did not help the dollar much because, in the second quarter, growth was 4.2%, and besides the US stock...
Yesterday was a relatively calm day in the financial markets. Stock markets were licking their wounds after Wednesday selloff, and the Nasdaq index even showed the peak daily gain since March. The foreign exchange market has been also without panic - the ECB expectedly left the rate unchanged, and Mario Draghi did not frighten the markets with an early tightening...
Yesterday the Bank of Canada to be expected hiked the rate. The reaction of the Canadian dollar totally justified our forecasts, so those our readers, who follow our trading ideas, could easily add 100 points to their total profit. Speaking of interest rates we cannot overlook today’s meeting of the ECB. There are no expectations of material surprises from it...
Today, the most interesting in the foreign exchange market will take place in pairs with the Canadian dollar. The reason is the announcement of the decision of the Bank of Canada in relation to the parameters of the monetary policy. As expected (the probability of about 70-80%) the rate will be increased by 0.25%. In this case, it is reasonable for the Canadian...
There were a little of macroeconomic statistics on Monday, as indeed, there would not so much of it on Tuesday. However, there is no calm in financial markets than there was. As already routinely Trump was a troublemaker, who announced about the necessity of next round of the tax reduction in the USA for the medium-sized business this time, not big only. Formally...
Since Monday fundamentally promises to be a calm day, at least in terms of macroeconomic statistics, we will focus on analyzing the events of the last week and announcements of forthcoming news. Let’s start traditionally with a news regarding British pound since our basic trading idea - purchases of the pound according to the false appreciation of it fair value...
For the UK in general and particularly for the pound the current week is not going well. Negotiations obviously postpone to November (or even December). Macroeconomic statistics are so-so (yesterday's retail sales data seriously disappointed: -0.8% m/m with a forecast of 0.4% m/m). As a result, the pound is under pressure. Nevertheless, current prices - are a...
Negotiations between EU and Great Britain this is obviously the main event of Wednesday. Apparently, it could finalize with nothing. Should we give up on the pound’s purchases in this regard? We consider we shouldn’t. We still see this solely as an opportunity for more cheaper purchases. We’ve noticed it many times that parties will wait till the last minute....
Wednesday promises to be quite an eventful day on financial markets. But before we run the forecasts, let’s analyze what is for yesterday was remembered. Statistics on the UK labor market turned out to be mixed. If unemployment (the minimum over the last few decades) and average wages (growing at maximum rates since 2009) can be attributed to the asset of the...
Monday, in general, passed in line with our forecasts and expectations: the pound grew, gold either. The dollar declined, in particular, under the pressure of rather weak statistics on retail sales in the US (+ 0.1% m / m, with the forecast of + 0.6% m / m). Meanwhile, the world is exceptionally turbulent. As a result, China's stock market fell to its lowest...
Last week was exclusively turbulent: the most substantial fall in the US stock market since February this year, oil lost in the value as much as it did since May. Cryptocurrency is also marked by one of the most substantial falls; gold has left a range that has been hatched for several months, the index of fear VIX at the maximum marks since summer. Trading in...
The US stock market has covered a wave of panic, but yesterday it was somewhat overcome, helped by data on consumer inflation in the US. It came out worse than expected in forecasts and somewhat reassured investors. Everybody worried about the impact of the Fed on the US economy too much. However, it is too early to relax. Gold yesterday went beyond the range in...