The US stock market this year clearly intends to demonstrate what the "Santa Claus Rally" calendar anomaly is. Rally Santa Rally is a price pattern in which stocks rally in the last seven trading sessions of the year plus the first two trading days of the New Year. Over the past 92 years, the S&P 500 has risen 77% of the time during the Santa Claus rally,...
We mainly viewed the change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States through the prism of the US stock market. But if someone loses, then someone should also win. And that someone is the US dollar. In general, 2021 turned out to be successful for the American currency: the dollar strengthened against all the currencies of the G-10 countries. At the...
Throughout 2021, Biden has been desperately pushing his economic agenda and its funding. We are talking about the infrastructure plan, which was cut in the process from 2 trillion to less than 1 trillion, as well as the so-called Build Back Better Act, within which it was assumed 1.75 trillion additional costs for various social and similar items. So yesterday...
The past week can be safely called the week of the Central Banks. The meetings were held by the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Turkey and a number of other central banks. Based on their results, a shift in the global vector of monetary policy is becoming more evident. But if earlier it was about the actions of relatively insignificant central...
Yesterday we wrote about the illogical growth of the US stock market on Wednesday following the FOMC meeting. What was happening was very similar to the situation in boxing, when one of the boxers misses a strong blow, but by inertia, the fight continues actively for a couple of seconds. And then the legs give way and the brain gives the command to retreat. So...
The main event of yesterday, and what is there of the day - the whole week, if not the whole next year - is the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting. Despite the fact that risky assets have reacted with growth, this is a good mine for a bad game. The Fed will not only accelerate the pace of tapering, but will also be extremely aggressive with regard to...
The markets were not up for fun yesterday. Traditionally, there were enough reasons for worrying. Omicron made it to China, manufacturing inflation in the United States showed the highest growth on record, and Germany, according to forecasts, will slide into recession by the end of the first quarter of 2022. And all this news came out against the background of...
Tomorrow the Fed may crash the US stock market. Or he can continue to pull the cat by the tail. Moreover, here and now you can hide behind Omicron, who confidently walks the planet, having registered in 60 countries. We have already written that this strain is extremely contagious. The number of cases in Denmark, like in Britain, doubles every two days. And...
The last week can definitely be written as an asset for buyers of risky assets. US stock indices closed in positive territory in the immediate vicinity of all-time highs. At the same time, the reality was far from so unambiguous. And by and large, everything was determined by the angle of incidence of sight on events. Take a pandemic, for example. If desired (and...
In yesterday, even with a magnifying glass of heightened optimism, it was difficult to find positive. The epic with Evergande seems to be going according to the worst scenario for China. China Evergrande Group was officially recognized as a defaulter for the first time. Fitch Ratings downgraded Evergrande to "limited default" due to the company's inability to make...
Markets on Wednesday continued to follow the news around the omicron. It was very interesting to observe how the seemingly obvious negative they managed to transform into a reason for optimism. As shown by the results of the study, the Pfizer vaccine is 40 times (!) Less effective against Omicron than against Delta. It would seem that this is a failure, complete...
Yesterday became a continuation of Monday. Apparently, the first day of the week was not enough for the markets to satisfy their passion for buying at a lower price. As a result, Nasdaq showed one of the best days of 2021, and prices were again close enough to historical highs, which in itself hints at not being cheap. In general, the motivation for buying...
The markets continue to be dominated by FOMO (fear of missing out) - the fear of missing out or not being in time. Skip the correction or do not have time to buy at a cheaper price. As a result, we have a day of massive sales, or active purchases. Despite the fact that nothing happens in the fundamental background - everything is the same, everything is in the...
All last week, the markets have been buzzing with one thought - her name is omicron. Will it be more contagious? Will a more severe course of the disease bring? Will the vaccine and immune defense cope with it? The future of financial markets largely depends on the answers to these questions. Judging by the dynamics of prices for risky assets (sales): stock...
The first cryptocurrency again spent most of Friday in a narrow range of 56150-57600. After the publication of mixed data on the US labor market, the cue ball made an attempt to grow, but immediately encountered a wave of sales, and the bears quickly returned the price to its previous levels. Then the fall continued and demand was absorbed near the key mark of...
The markets were scared again. In general, over the past 4 trading sessions, it was scary 3 days out of 4. That in itself hints at a change in the vector of market sentiments. Yesterday, the news was chosen as a pretext that a vaccinated US resident, after traveling to South Africa, brought home some fresh omicron with him. Thus, the United States joined the list...
From the point of view of macroeconomic statistics, the main news of yesterday was inflation data from the Eurozone, which showed a record rise in prices in the region. 4.9% year on year, this has never happened in the entire history of the euro. This is almost 2.5 times more than the ECB's target, significantly higher than the previous value and experts'...
Yesterday the markets realized that on Friday they somehow overdid it and counter movements were observed on most of the assets. However, in most cases it was not possible to return to the original ones. The reason, on the one hand, is the hope that everything is not so bad with this Omicron and can still carry. On the other hand, the risks are still great to walk...