After getting knocked out earlier in the month, the most recent range reversal trade has worked out well. I am going to stick with the short position for now as long as the rate of change stays negative and we remain under the 132 bar (or 22 day) moving average. I am still looking for price to hit range lows near 2.238
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The model is a Geometric Markov Model :
In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing...
Hello everyone
Natural gas broke a downtrend since 2019
Price broke out of the downtrend retested the broken trend and now heading to supply zone
Price formed a uptrend channel
watch price action inside the channel
Watch chart key notes for more clear path
any question feel free to ask :)
Midterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 1.400, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 2.250 breaks.
If the support at 1.400 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the support #1 at 30 and it prevented price from more losses.
While the RSI...
Midterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 1.400, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 2.250 breaks.
If the support at 1.400 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the support #1 at 30 and it prevented price from more losses.
While the RSI...
Here are reasons to short natural gas at this level:
1. Both MACD and RSI have reached overbrought level. 1 Year MACD reached historical high since Oct 2004.
2. Reached 2.7-2.73 resistance level
3. Mild temperature will not boost the short term demand.
Don't really like charting 3x, however this look's like a decent setup.
Daily RSI & MacD = Bullish momentum + Elliot pattern will look to short at top with DGAZ down to fib 50%
Thursday EIA inventory report showed that inventories rose by 102 bcf. That is eleventh consecutive week that inventories are above their 5 year average. That pushed prices down to test previous support and making double bottom structure. Chart structure is good for bounce and signalling some gains for long positions.
During the mid of November, we experienced a terrible bull attack. I shorted Natural Gas at 4 and got a huge loss.
Thanks to the setting of stop loss, i survived from that bounce. I also heard many traders lost their position when they waked up in the morning.
Hedge Fund "OptionSellers" managed by the legendary trader James Cordier, broke in one night, because...
- It might take one to two years to complete this movement.
- The reason I analyze neutral gas is to give hedge and industrial managers a hint or at least my personal view on the commodity.
- This also might gives us a hint about the oil prices and companies that are affected by them.
Natural gas reached 3.295 today, upped 19% in a month. It just the beginning of October, the weather is going mild in the next two or three weeks. So we will probably have another two or three weeks injections before the real winter coming. So i think it's still too early to chase that high, and the bulls are facing extremely high risk. Technically, we have...
Natural Gas closed above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. Today's green Heikin-Ashi was the second in a row. This could be the start of a move back up.
