📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.29 At a time when Lagarde ought to play the “leading” role, something similar to the pacemaker in the Tour de France, and not kick the can with PEPP while reading newspapers about what has happened from her home. I am personally expecting nothingness from the ECB and instead to tee up more QE in December which will be...
📅 October 18th EURUSD - Election Map Eurobonds positional play The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China....
EUR is under pressure because of negative interest rates. ECB needs to push EUR lower in order to rise inflation. USD is waiting for some good news and is preparing for bullish run after the elections. Technically nice channel appeared where I will short the pair for the next bearish leg. My previous chart was EURCAD which doesn't have important correlation...
The exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. ...
The ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the...
This diagram portrays the position from the initial 2020 Macro map which I posted on December 31st 2019. The position arose after I called the end of an economic cycle and positioned with the intention to defend. We overshot the lows and snapped back, it is worth pointing out that sellers have significantly better chances because of the strong resistance. 📌 Dax...
📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp...
📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct...
Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset...
EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar...
📌 Here we have a relatively straight forward move in play. After EUR held the lows buyers can follow through; true, clearly sellers are not in control and failed to obtain the powerful ABC sequence main target. In other words... buyers are aggressive, GBP exposure would be better off elsewhere. The mobility of UK market access will contract (at least in the...
📌 Here tickets are very cheap for those wanting to exploit the NZD weakness via dovish RBNZ. While on the European side, a direct consolidation of the debt, sacrificing Merkel to save the currency. Complex but totally tradable flows. => After the textbook move in EURUSD Euro crosses can almost equalise. In cramped consolidation, you cannot afford to give...
📍 EURUSD G10 FX Strategy The analysis of this starting position shows us two important triggers to conduct additional entries to our long positions. => A flanking manoeuvre is underway, but also a quick-witted fundamental swing; the euro's transition towards a funding currency and eurobonds saves it from collapse. As long as this expectation exists, the...
📍 EURUSD breaking out of the consolidation/chop and starting to tactically move higher. As you all have noticed, volumes are a lot lighter as markets catch their breath back. The two clashing forces on the risk front remain set to hijack the flows at any time: 1️⃣ an increasing R0 / case numbers and; 2️⃣ re-openings / economic surprises. Overshoots on...
We are entering into short-term technical flows for the weekly closing range after Fed flows come to an end. The growing concerns over rising virus cases will skyrocket over this weekend, expecting a flooding of negative news from mainstream media which will put Western European countries back into the crosshairs. For the technicals, SEK is trading at a very...
📍 Road to mastering 1.150x of Eurobonds play (schematic representation of the macro swing) 1️⃣ Counter the false conception that every single risk-off flow has to produce an immediate USD effect; waiting moves and underlying MT / LT game changer positioning on the macro front are also totally justified now that Europe are making steps towards mutualising...
Technical sell as price pulls back for another leg up as Euro stimulus continues. Maybe dxy gains some strength which will help this move but that's not the idea behind the trade. The traders trying to buy the 200 MA here will be funny to watch lose. Happy trading.
📍 EURCHF On the CHF side, we had started to see a lot of plumbing from SNB at the lows 1.06xx-1.05xx and for those following the flows it was the 🔑 level we were to tracking in Q1. It is no surprise that we are reaching the end of ' Phase 1 ' and constituting a very powerful base that we can now use as an attacking weapon. The purpose of the sweep was to...