Back in November 2017 I posted the idea titled "USDJPY. Possible wave count. SeeSaw" (see related). The price was shaping the junction of wave B of ABC correction, which still emerges in this pair. Last update was done this February where I showed the possible area of wave B completion around 104.25. The price reached 104.60 area and reversed. I post this update...
This is one of the ways how the current correction within the wave X of WXY could unfold. It is a contracting triangle. After completion we could see another wave down, which is Y. I highlighted the target area with an orange box, this is where Y is equal to W. It perfectly fits with the Fibonacci retracement area between 78.6% and 88.6%.
The main thing - the break below 112.57 (low 18JAN2017) invalidated the previous count. I think we are in abc (blue) correction before another drop down. The blue C can surpass the top of blue A. The break below white support line would confirm the start of another drop down. Targets are between 38.2% (111.99) and 50% (109.93) Fibonacci retracement levels.
The premium in YEN have been increasing and even though it's on the down move in the range, the calls can be sold for a nice premium. In the immediate term I would like YEN to move up to my resistance area. If YEN has to move down, I would like it to move down slowly.