One of the most highest probability of trades are: neutral Iron Condors with high Implied Volatility on large indices. (SPX, DJI, RUT) The more an indice is overbougth, than better this strategy works, as the correction also results more movement into downside. Unlike other overvalued stocks, however: the indices are not collapsing. (except for 1-2 extreme...
I've opened a LONG CALL VERTICAL spread yesterday end of day for Dow Jones. Correction maybe consolidated, I'm expecting some short squeeze soon. Otherwise the probability of profit is godd, and the trade is manageable because of lower strikes. (1) Relative Implied Volatility is low I'm using my Relative implied volatility indicator to determine the...
AIG currently is trading with an IV30 of 19.6, making its IV Rank 21.8. This low rank indicates that the options will be cheap, and encourages debit spreads, regardless of being bullish or bearish. These spreads will profit when volatility mean-reverts to higher levels. Because of this well-developed bear flag, we are expecting a continuation of the prior...
Cannabis stocks have the possibility to move a lot in a short period of time, as regulatory changes on whims have huge impact on the market size to which Cannabis companies can sell their products. Although our stance is that the cannabis industry is likely to become even more volatile as more regulatory developments and sector-wide shake-outs leave only the...
Short Strangle, 20 delta (68/75 strikes), 37 'DTE, $1.07 credit
With earning season quickly wrapping up, I'm look to put on a few high IVR/IV plays to bridge the gap between now and mid-January when the whole dog and pony show starts up again. With an IVR/IV currently at 82/82 and having just announced earnings a few weeks ago, SCTY is one of those possible plays. As usual, I will go short strangle: Dec 31st 19/39 short...
With an IVR/IV of 78/69, here's an oil and gas premium selling play that probably beats my XOP play that did not get filled in a shortened trading day on Friday. Additionally, it's another longer-term play that I look to work to bridge the gap between this earnings season and the next. Jan 15 22.5/35 short strangle POP: ~73% Max Profit: $133/contract BPE:...
I'm looking to put on a couple more plays to bridge the gap between the end of this earnings season and the next, but worthwhile +70 IVR non-earnings announcement plays look to be somewhat hard to come by. Post-earnings, FIT's IV remains high (70) (it currently doesn't have a 52-week ThinkOrSwim IVR, since it hasn't been around long enough) and the premium is...
QUNR announced earnings a little more than a week ago, and IVR/IV remains high (76/74). With this particular underlying, I'm potentially looking for a fairly quick volatility contraction and may not hold all the way to 50% maximum profit: the strikes are a bit unworkable where I would ideally want them for the Jan 15 expiry (I just can't tweak them to that 16%...
CNX has been totally hammered and with an IVR of 100 and an IV of 119, I can't resist a play. 100 Shares CNX at 6.61 1 Jan 15 7 short call Total Package: 6.00 debit ($600) Max Profit: (If Called Away at 7 -- $100, excluding fees/commissions).
With oil absolutely tanking, a wide variety of premium selling plays in oil and gas have come to the forefront. I'm going to play the increased volatility in this sector via OIH short strangle (IVR 62/IV 41). Ideally, I'd wait for IVR to pop to 70+, but my thinking is that oil will drop and then proceed to consolidate, after which volatility will collapse: Jan...
Having announced earnings about two weeks ago, IVR/IV in GME remains high (70/55). The standard setup -- the short strangle: Jan 22 27.5/38.5 short strangle POP%: 71% Max Profit: $113/contract BPE: ~$333/contract Break Evens: 26.37/39.63 Look to take it off at 50% max profit and move on ... .
Some stuff hits my high IVR/high IV radar over and over again. WYNN is one of those, with an IVR currently at 100 and an IV at 81. Some caution is in order, though, since ordinarily I like going 45 days out and WYNN's earnings are due to be announced on 2/2, so I want any setup to expire somewhat before that so I don't get caught in a volatility expansion (that...
And, before you research this underlying, the answer is, "No, it is not the bordering-on-porn men's magazine, Maxim"; it's an integrated circuit company. This is another longer-term play I'm looking to work to bridge the gap between now and the beginning of next earnings season. In any event, MXIM post-earnings IVR/IV is currently at 91/38. Standard short...
Although most of the ideas I've published recently have involved earnings announcement plays, I'm always on the lookout for volatility in the SPDR's or other sector ETF's. Currently, the highest IVR SPDR that pops up on my screener is XOP. XOP, OIH, and related individual underlyings have continuously been at the volatility forefront for several weeks running...
Only two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday. Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had...
You know what they say, one's man's junk is another man's treasure ... . With an IVR of 100 and an IV of 18, this may be as good as junk is going to get for premium selling (don't quote me on that; further sell-off could be on the horizon ... ). HYG Jan 29 74/84 short strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $109/contract BPE: ~ (Undefined/After Hours) BE's: 72.91/85.09
TOL -- Tuesday before market open, but it doesn't look promising with an IVR of 44 and an IV of 31. COST -- Tuesday after market close. I would like higher volatility in it if I am going to play. Currently, IVR is at 31 and IV 30. LULU -- Wednesday before market open (so put your setup on on Tuesday before market close). IVR looks good at 75, with IV at 63....