Just looking for some premium around the market on these up days. Found an "okay" IV in FXE. Trade setup: - 1 FXE Mar 17 101/103/103/105 Iron Fly @ 1.37 DTE: 32 Max Win: $137 Max Loss: $63 Trade Management: 25% Winner or ~ $35; Full loser or will roll out ITM/tested side if on the dance floor. Green is profit zone and vertical black line represents expiration.
... for a 2.24 ($224)/contract credit. (High IVR/High IV; Post Earnings Volatility Contraction Play). Metrics: Max Profit: $224/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $177/contract Break Evens: 23.27/27.73 Theta: 6.12 Delta: -4.33 Notes: I'm looking to manage this at 25% max profit.
... for a 4.35 ($435)/contract credit. I put this on earlier in the week, but neglected to post it here ... . (High implied volatility rank; high implied volatility; it's in the 95th percentile of where implied volatility has been in the past six months; its background implied volatility is at 47%). Metrics (Currently): Max Profit: $418/contract Max...
Still looking for any IV in the market - XRT had a 35 IVP, so I thought I would put something small on. Focused on minimal BP exposure during these tough times in IV, but I have to keep a decent # of occurrences up regardless. Trade Setup: - 1 XRT Mar 17 42/44/44/46 Ironfly @ $1.34 DTE: 30 Max Win: $134 Max Loss: $66 Breakevens : 42.66 and 45.34 Trade...
High implied volatility rank, high implied volatility, earnings/volatility contraction play ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $203/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $197/contract Break Evens: 22.97/27.03 Delta: -6.38 Theta: 2.03 Notes: I'll shoot to take this off at 25% max profit ... .
Looking for petro to zombie about in here in the short term ... . Implied volatility rank isn't as high as I'd like it, but background vol is one of the higher ones out there for exchange traded funds. Metrics: Max Profit: $242/contract Max Loss: $158/contract Break Evens: 37.58/42.42 Notes: Will look to manage at north of 25% max profit.
X announces earnings tomorrow (Tuesday) after market close, and with its implied volatility rank and implied volatility metrics, it's ripe for a volatility contraction play. Here are two possible setups, which naturally might need to be tweaked this way or that depending on price movement intraday tomorrow. Feb 17th 29/38 Short Strangle Metrics Probability...
There isn't much non-earnings stuff out there that has both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility. This is one of them. Here I'm going with an extremely narrow iron condor, such that it's almost an iron fly ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $338/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $462/contract Break Evens: 32.62/40.38 Notes: I'm going to treat...
... for a 2.25 credit. Although general background IV in FXE isn't high here (it rarely is, comparatively speaking), it's high relative to where it's been in the last six months. Metrics: Max Profit: $225 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $175 BE's at 98.75/103.25 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit. Just trying to keep the theta coming in here with what...
... for a 5.29 credit. IVR isn't as high as I'd like it (>70% over the preceding six months), but I'll take it ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $529 Max Loss: $371/contract Break Evens: 56.61/67.29 Notes: As will all flies, will look to take profit at 25% max.
Out of a Brazil play and into a China play ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $153/contract Max Loss: $147/contract Break Evens: 33.97/37.03 Notes: Will look to manage this at 25% max.
Go where the volatility takes you, I say. Layering on a bit more EWZ fly here, this time in the Jan 13th expiry. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 42% Max Profit: $214/contract Max Loss: $136/contract Break Evens: 30.36/34.64 Notes: You know the drill ... . Will look to take this off at 25% max profit.
You know me, goin' where the volatility takes me, and today it's in the retail space. Metrics: Max Profit: $213/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $137/contract Break Evens: 42.37/46.63 Notes: As with all flies, I'll look to take profit at 25% max. This is based on after hours quotes, so this setup may not be as sexy as it looks now come NY open, so it may...
There isn't much premium out there to be sold in index or sector exchange traded funds, but this is one of them ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 46% Max Profit: $518/contract Max Loss: $415/contract Break Evens: 55.82/66.18 Notes: I'll shoot to take profit at 25% of max ... .
And right back into "the Brazilian," as there isn't much high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility stuff to play out there at the moment ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 45% Max Profit: $223/contract Max Loss: $177/contract Break Evens: 29.77/34.23 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit.
Posted here is a live trade example of a LULU iron fly. I started this out as an earnings trade iron condor, looking for classic volatility contraction post-announcement. I got the contraction I wanted, but not the movement, as price immediately broke the short call side of my setup, after which I rolled to an iron fly. (See Post Below). A week after earnings,...
... to JAN 20TH 119/122/125 iron fly for a .01 net credit. With the short put side of the Dec 16th iron condor nearing worthless and rolling intra-expiry to a fly not particularly productive, I'm rolling this out to the Jan expiry, improving the call side a strike and rolling the put side into a fly, "keeping the dream alive." Rolling is never fun, but it's the...
After I pulled off the short call of the Dec 2nd iron fly at near worthless today, I rolled the short put side out to the Dec 23rd expiry to give it a little more time to work out, as well to be able to work the call side of the setup effectively. (I have a setup in the Dec 30th expiry already, so didn't want to roll there; Jan was too far out in time for my...