Crude started the new year with volatility, as prices initially rebounded into price resistance near $38/bbl on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the rally was short-lived and there looks to be no follow through in today's session. There are a few key factors to take into account: slow global growth, a decline in global demand growth...
Situation at industrial production in the US hints of a stalled recovery around 2008 highs, which is a risk, considering the fact that current base year for the indices was recently updated to 2012 (so there is no base effect in the index now) Total industrial production has recovered past its 2008 highs, but stalled somewhat at current levels since about a year...
Industrial Production Index has been trending within its relevant ascending range since 2011 and has restored all the losses of the 2008-2009 financial crisis back in mid-summer 2013. Thus overall the Industrial production in the US is developing at a good pace, in line with the lateral uptrend in S&P 500.
The Dow Jones Industrial to Gold ratio has reached a key resitance area near the 15 level for the completion of what we believe was corrective wave 4. We are expecting a continuation of the bearish move with the final downwave V. First target near the 2011 low of 5.69.