Morning everybody,
So, BTC has confirmed our suggestion and indeed has formed "222" Sell, just AB=CD retracement on 1H chart and dropped back to 3600 then.
Here, on daily chart we have DiNapoli grabber that suggests drop below 3600 lows. Here I keep the shape of H&S pattern, just to describe the importance of possible breakout.
Drop below the bottom of right...
Here is we update our long-term view on DAX index and EU equities in general.
It would be better to place weekly charts as well, but you're experienced guys, you'll get it ;)
So, market last week has completed our minor weekly H&S pattern (you could see right at top of large monthly one) and hit XOP at 10200 area. This is also monthly oversold level and major...
Morning everybody,
So, it is difficult choice today what picture to show - either 4H or 1H. Finally I've chosen 4H, since it better represents the idea.
Major thing has happened already - irrational price behavior on daily chart suggests drop below 3000 and potentially to our 2800 target. Thus, intraday price action is minor episode in this process
and has no...
Morning guys,
Last week we shared with our doubts on upside perspectives and our reverse H&S pattern in particular, because of irrational market behavior around its neckline.
It was too calm without any momentum, slow and heavy, which is not typical for H&S pattern, where right arm should be controlled by bulls and upside acceleration should happen.
As a...
Greetings,
although market has shown minor upside spike, after our recent discussion, strong collapse has followed shows inability of the market to break neckline of daily H&S pattern.
Although major invalidation point of right arm's bottom @3600$ has not been broken yet, and theoretically H&S is still valid, but this kind of action is irrational for H&S...
Morning guys,
Despite we have worried about bullish context due weak performance but worst expectations hopefully were in vain and market with delay but still has shown upside breakout that we were waiting for.
So, first target of 4040, is completed. This is actually AB-CD based on 4H H&S pattern and two butterflies. Now we're coming to most interesting thing,...
Greetings guys,
Although our H&S pattern on daily chart is still valid, at least on paper, but the action that we see on 4H time frame increases chances of failure.
As you can see the daily right arm bottom takes the shape of smaller 4H H&S pattern. Normal price action suggests upside acceleration as soon as H&s has been formed.
But here we see opposite...
Morning guys, welcome back, we hope that you had a good Xmas and New Year's day time.
Mostly BTC supports our scenario with daily H&S pattern and now we turn to final stage - action to the target. Two entry opportunities have worked well. First was on the bottom of the right arm, second - on minor retracement, based on our hourly H&S pattern.
Now, as we have...
Morning guys,
So, upstep is done - market shows upside bounce from our anticipated 3500 level, which is suggested by daily H&S shape. Now BTC has only one legal road - up.
Illegal reversal will mean H&S failure which suggests drop below the 3000$ Head level.
Now time has come for our "conservative" tactics, if you were scared a bit to buy right at the daily...
Morning guys,
So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area.
Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and
treat this H&S only as a...
Morning guys,
Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week.
Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback...
Morning guys,
yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this.
We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm.
But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where...
Morning guys,
BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep.
As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major...
Morning guys,
Market shows good pace on upside action, but long-term bearish momentum is still here and sooner or later but it should become a reason for deep retracement (or even downside continuation),
Since we have strong resistance ahead - 4000-4100$ is combination of Fib levels and some harmonic targets. Thus, it could be used as potential upside target...
Morning guys,
Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart
makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern.
It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in...
Morning, guys,
On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart.
Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320...
Morning guys,
It seems that our suggestion was correct. Once we've identified triangle, it has been broken down. Breakout leg makes possible appearing of butterfly pattern which has the same ~2900 1.618 target as daily one.
on 1H chart we have minor butterfly pattern with 3170 minor target as well.
Morning guys,
here is just fast add-on to our recent analysis. Daily chart is most representative right now as it shows pattern and potential drop to 2900 target.
Meantime, intraday chart also brings some clarity today as we could recognize clearer triangle/pennant pattern, which could be treated as continuation one.
