The price for crude has not only been lower longer than many analysts foreseen, but prices have been volatile. With the Crude VIX (a measure of crude price volatility) well above historical range, four to five percent price swings are almost common place. The crude VIX (blue line) broke through multi-year highs as West Texas Intermediate crude fell through $65...
In 8 hours we will witness the perhaps most anticipated news event in Forex of 2015 so far. The FED will communicate their rate decision, accompanied by a written statement, economic projections and a press conference. The Dollar is fundamentally the strongest currency due to the expectation of a rate hike this year. This sets it apart from currencies like the...
Sterling has been on a monster tear after mixed employment data out of the United Kingdom. Averages earnings beat expectations of 2.6 percent, printing a 2.9 percent. However, the U.K. did see a rise in unemployment even as the unemployment rate fell a tenth-percent. Traders are looking to front from any potential talk out of the Bank of England (BoE) that...
Some say this week's FOMC decision will be of historical proportions and be the first time the Federal Reserve will increase the Fed funds rate in almost a decade. The U.S. dollar index is in a descending trend. Price action is floating above the minor trend created by the top on April 13. The dollar has not been able to see any significant support higher,...
So it's been a crazy week for the stock markets around the world and everyone's trying to point the blame at something. Whatever the reason you believe don't let it justify your reasoning for entering a trade, enter only on what you see not what you hear! I can't stress this enough! So many traders are throwing money into the market trying to catch falling knives...
Despite all the hype raised about fed printing 3.5 trillion USD during times of economic stimulus, the real amout of help to economy is much smaller - it is approximately 1 trillion USD The rest of "printed" money is held at the Fed or traded on federal funds market by the recipients of the stimulus (key US financial institutions, who received reserve balances...
Running Alpha Capital Markets observes that higher rates are not always a headwind, as the not too distant record shows that the electric utilities group can outperform and offer a margin of safety. During the last period of higher rates, from mid 2004 to mid-2006, the FOMC hiked rates 16 times, and despite these incremental actions, electric utilities actually...
RunningAlpha Capital Markets see market players in the 5 year treasury notes at the belly of the USA yield curve structurally positioned for a very strong bullish bias ahead on both an absolute and relative yield curve basis. A breakout above the August 5th highs should accelerate the rally and add upside persistence to the 5 year yield. So, be on high alert for...
Please check out the full article here: oilpro.com The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLE) has been battered, and it is starting to bruise. With the price of crude now just hovering $43 per barrel, this exchange-traded fund (ETF) is likely to get a whole lot cheaper. This fund has support near-term because Wall Street is discounting recent events in the oil...
The dollar-yen has been rather range bound, floating between 123 and 125. The U.S. dollar is likely to remain firm heading into September, as many market participants believe the Federal Reserve will finally raise the Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006. Many traders are looking at the fact that funds rate future traders are pricing in a 54 percent...
Please check out the full, original post chalk full of information: oilpro.com .... On a market technician's viewpoint, if fundamentals do not shape up quick with support from consumption economies, like the U.S. and China, crude could break 2009's low of $33.20 per barrel. I also expect the dollar to continue to rise, increasing deflationary pressure throughout...
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is in a precarious place ahead of the highly anticipated non-farms payroll print tomorrow. Technically, the DXY is budding up against descending trend resistance created when the greenback was able to carve out a multi-year high of 100.39 in March. After a series of lower-lows and lower-highs, traders have been able to create a slight...
Yesterday, Ashraf Laidi put out an interesting post on the USDJPY and a 40-month cycle. From April 1995 to August 1998, the pair rose just over 85 percent. In brief, in the mid-90s, the US were raising interest rates (who does that anymore? Psh), which made the dollar stronger following the recession of 1990. The Japanese yen was devalued, too, as their asset...
The Dollar was lifted again on Friday after a very good NFP reading. This, coupled with some expected strong data this week, should contunue to support the U.S. Dollar into next week. Investors are looking to that first rate hike.
Expect some consolidation Forming a potential H & S? Will wait for confirmation Daily RSI has rooms to fall Data Dependant on ADP & Non Farm Payroll Previous yellow box was a bullish wedge Forecast next yellow box is a bearish wedge?
We're expecting a lot of weakness in the U.S. Dollar because of the Fed's upcoming meeting on Wednesday where we're not expecting them to be hawkish, or as hawkish as they have been.
We have two huge risk events coming from the U.S. this week, both on Wednesday. GDP is expected to fall massively from the last reading, and with the recent string of bad data from the U.S., we're expecting some more dovish comments from the Fed on Wednesday. Short the Dollar.
Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) stock trades at a P/S of 2.69, a P/B of 2.47, and an excellent P/E of 12.94. It has an incredible forward P/E of 6.68! The catalyst: Federal Reserve rate hikes later this year will benefit insurance companies like Heritage. The chart shows a consolidation pattern but it's dangerously close to breaking below the 50 day moving...