All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long...
Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely...
On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into...
Turkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus...
With the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste. For those who have been tracking the...
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There are similarities with Venezuela. It's look like Trump and Israel doesn't wan't to loose power in middle east. They are some good projects like: *new silk road to istanbul *drilling for oil and gas near Cyprus in the near future Battle cards tell you truth. Turkey+Russia+China+Iran have now more power and control in middle east. Trump + Israel have more...
=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1)....
If you get involved in provocative acts, saying ‘foreign currencies will strengthen, this will happen, that will happen’, you will pay a very heavy price - Erdogan TRY Fundamental Quant Score +60 USD Fundamental Quant Score -4 Investors seek reforms, fear populism Lira initially weakened 2.5 percent Shares rise 1 percent (Updates lira, adds London...
Here we are witnessing a very interesting move taking place for the Turkish financial system. After finishing a clear corrective ABC sequence since the August highs we are now in the early stages of an impulsive move to finish the more broader 5th wave in a very large sequence. For those tracking the updates in USDTRY in the previous charts (see attached:...
Hey guys, this is actually an update to my post of best trade I`ve ever had in Forex since we shorted that awesome retracement :-) Check the actually trade and let me know what you think. #lovetodiscuss Cheers ang doo trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me for daily ideas and posts =)
Erdogan speaking publicly for the first time since the TRY rout started (years ago). His comments are not being appreciated by the markets. Quite a closed mind it seems, and an aggressive posture against the international community. This will only exacerbate capital flight from Turkey.
After a massive fall because of a hike in interest rates in Turkey, EURTRY bulls managed to stage a weak recovery within a corrective channel. I think the channel will be broken to the downside soon. Good luck, Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe
Dear traders, it seems like it's time to reenter USDTRY longs. Now with price moving firmly back above the (fake)coup key level, I think it's highly likely to see the dollar rally resume, against the fundamentally weakened Turkish Lyra. My signals group is long for a day already, from 2.9920 with stops at 2.9707. We're looking to add to longs here, and trail our...