UPDATE: the pair moved differently of the forecast and did not trigged the entry position.
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My approach is quite conservative for this pair. An ABC pattern already happened (abc in orange) but I am looking for a bigger ABC flat before the uptrend continuation.
Update: 50 pips loss.
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The prices almost touched the estimated target based on my previous analysis. It made a ABC correction and it feels like a begining of a 5 waves down (possible a ending diagonal) to the $1.076 area.
As we are currently still in an uptrend on the daily time frame until a clear break of 1.4300 I'm looking to go bullish on this pair. Currently hitting some price consolidation now showing that supply and demand are balanced. Looking for a break of the bearish sloping trendline once a reversal takes place around at 1.4550 levels.
I guess it will be a trend continuation after days in consolidation.
I am assuming that the consolidation is already broke and the retracement is a opportunity to hope on the trend.
The price action hints me that could be an appreciation of USD through this week. Wednesday 15th the parliament of Greece will decide the Euro's bailout terms.
Reason 1: Obvious down trend *Bias*
Reason 2: Channeling in a down (Sellers taking a breather)
Reason 3: A strong indication of a bearish flag in the down trend
Confluences:
1/ With the trend
2/ Retest with pin bar showing us deceleration
3/ MACD bullish divergence
4/ TL bounce
5/ 61.8% fib bounce
6/ Bounce of the 1.95 level which is a weekly level
GBPNZD shows indecision candles for the last few trading sessions, it might be a signal to have potential bearish movement if breaks the previous low of the last doji. Risk reward 1:2 is a good proportion, will hold the position for the next few days and will try to find better entry point to go short
Update: the market responded late to this trade. The gap somehow invalid the forecast
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The last bullish momentum was just a gap-closing action. Demand seems too weak to expect another bull impulse.
All clues leads to a short position.
