Dowi is at a very very excessive level. On the Chart, you can clearly see the expansion channel. And we are very much above that channel. Indicators show clearly the excessive and overbought level of the market. the correction might be very severe and Sharp. Therefore, those who wishes to enter the market should be very carefull with there timing, the...
The pattern is not very clear although we can think about the formation of a very sharp Falling Wedge because of the volatility of the market last week based on ECB announcement and NFP, or we have to wait for another candle to see if we are on the eve of the double bottom. Indicators such as Stoch suggest that we are at an oversold level, ie, we may face a...
The pair may face a little correction towards %50 of Fibo retracement i.e 102.0XXX, however, baring in mind FED's decision ,the tapering schedule and BoJ decision, the pair is still on the strong side for the USD. In other words, even though there may be a correction even to 101.5, on a medium term, it is long for the USDJPY pair in favor of USD unless a polical...
The raising wedge pattern is very clear. As I have mentioned in my previous chart, the market will try to hit above 10000, not that it is justify but just for the fun of it. At the present time, nothing justify such a huge expansion of the index toward 10000 and even further but market is being dominated by the buyers and the sellers are waiting for the good...
I cautioned last week about reading too much into the hammer off the 1.35 support level. When news hits the wires price can move fast but often has few participants. As we can see from two days of selling the market is still bearish on EUR/USD. Give time and price working to support in a well mannered way I think a bottom can be put in.
Friends, As you may recall, on May 15th, I highlighted a break out of a pattern within a pattern (some might call it Wolfe, others a wedge, while EW traders might call it a diagonal triangle, but it all works out the same) when price fell below its support trendline (see circled pink highlight in the chart). I inscribed a dashed blue line to highlight the...
The ECB announcement reversed the selloff in the Euro today but whether this is the beginning of a new leg up is uncertain. We need to see confirmation of the hammer candlestick on the chart and a little more follow through on the stochastic. The biggest challenge from a technical perspective facing the Euro's ability to break above 1.40 is all the congestion at...
Well, VIx is in a forced uptrend, because of the oversold level on the one hand, and the overconfidence of the market on the other. It means that all indexes are higher then they should be. Stoch switch from the oversold level to a regular long level. This is the initial sign of a reversal trend in Indexes as well as on VIX. At least a technical correction for...
This study has been drawn on a weekly chart. My forcast regarding DAX since QE3 i.e September 2012 was 9706 and I have mentioned it many times in my previous studies. I still consider that as of now, and above 9706, we are at an illusive and exessive level, this is also confirmed by the STOCH and you can even ad RSI or W%R. Nevertheless, I am not the...
ECB President was very clear. There is yet no sign of growth in Europe and worst, a risk of deflation. Refi interest rate has been lowered, and even on the deposit rate, ECB decided to go to a negative rate, like BoJ did in the past. One can think that money withdrawn from the saving accounts would go on the market, but the market is very week, with no growth...
Dear readers, no suprise, as forseen, interest rates have been lowered by ECB President Draghi and no QE has been announced yet although ECB state that they are working on it. 2-We have seen the price as I've forseen yesterday, i.e 4 candles before ECB decision that price my go down to 1.355 and even 1.352 which it did, and now there is a recovery towards 1.362...
As I said this week there would be a slow downtrend and yesterday I said that it will come near 1240 before going up through the ECB Base Rate changes. We have a resistance Break of 1250 and next target would be 1269. Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls have expectations for pushing the gold price higher. If you follow the US economic values after last...
In principale market has already priced ECB interst rate decision i.e to lower the interest rate and refi rate to negatif. Therefore is no decision is taken, Eur will jump high against USD. If the decision of ECB is limited to interst rate cut, then, there may be a swift move down to 1.355 or even bellow to 1.352 but the buyers will come back on the market,...
Friends, A very quick note here highlighting both a long-term pattern development found in a wedge, which I have overlaid over the results of my predictive/forecasting model, whose targets are defined as: 1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14 and 2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14. With ECB decisions coming up tomorrow (05 JUN 2014), the Forex community may or may...
CAC40's was on an excessive level. Above 4506, it is a very illusive and excessive level as far as I am concerned. YOu can clearly see on my previous studies that my headline goal was 4506. I could have reviewed this level if ECB was clearly announcing a European QE which will not yet be the case. Having said that, on a purely technical aspect, the index may face...
On a purely technical aspect, DAX is facing a heavy resistance over 9950. My personal target of FED's QE3 based on QE1+QE2+ DAX's index earning being reinvest in the market was and still is 9706. Therefore I do consider every level above 9706 excessive and overbought as it is now. STOCH Shows clearly the signal of correction. Since Mid March, even later early...
Some FOREX pairs's future are really in between the lips of CB's President either ECB for EURUSD or FED and Yellen for USDJPY. Having said that, the future of USDJPY is in the lips of Yellen. there might be a technical correction on the pair in favor or JPY towards 101.5 or even a little bit bellow, but on a long run, particularly of FED increases its interest...
We are at 12 candles sticks before ECB PResident Mario Draghi makes its statement with regard the interest rate. In both cases, lowering interest rate to -0.25 or keeping the interest rate as it is will not give an impetus to the market because European Banks own savings will not go to investment or to facilitate the credits line for SME's, and the private...