Yesterday's session started by the gap closure, just as we pinpointed. The resistance at 12 576 was retested twice and then the price action was dominated by fundamentals. The ECB President Mario Draghi hinted a possible rate cut into negative values to tackle Eurozone's economic stagnation. This scepticism influenced the German stock index DAX as well and we saw...
On our analysis on the 02.07 we were short EURUSD after a strong payroll and have since taken profit as the currency pair fell below 1.12. We are still short and long term we expected EURUSD to keep falling and believe it could fall to multi years lows below 1.08 by the end of 2019. This week could bring a significant amount of movement in the currency pair with...
EURAUD has reached to one of its strongest resistance zone. In the past few years price fell down sharply after reaching this point in several occasions. Now again market is in this area. If you look at the oscillators like RSI, MACD, Stochastic on the chart to measure the energy of the market, you see divergences and RSI overbought which all means market...
Here we can make the argument that the market is building a material floor. The 5 wave sequence from 2018 has come to an end and the rebound has rallied through 3 waves implying that it is an overlapping correction. This is complex and a very advanced environment compared with 5-3-5 impulsive legs... this will test the deepest of pockets. All levels in play are...
Prior ECB policy easing has devalued the Euro ...I believe it is a good time for a long-term chart update in EURUSD as we dig deeper into the effects of unconventional ECB policy has had on the Euro. It is difficult to ignore the clear law of diminishing returns and implies further rate cuts from the ECB will not devalue the Euro, but instead could lift EURUSD by...
Nimbus clouds are appearing on the monetary side across the globe, whilst Europe starts to clear risks in a similar nature to that of 2017. There is an underlying bid for the EUR, appreciation pressure remains in what is becoming a "race to the bottom" for G10 FX. Inflation swap markets are screaming for attention from the ECB ahead of the important CB combo next...
As is the case in the latest Dollar chart we are sitting at a significant level, if we take 1.142x resistance it will unlock the impulsive nature in the rally. We have covered widely the floor being built in EUR over the previous weeks, given the fact we held above the wedge breakout it implies that there is potential for continuation towards 1.157x. To put...
A good time for a chart update here after the impulsive wedge break. After cracking through resistance, moving averages and everything else inbetween we are starting to reach the first target at 1.142x for the ABC sequence. From a technical perspective, those with a background in waves will know a rally through these levels will officially define the move as...
President Trump said Tuesday morning that Xi Jinping had agreed to meet with him at the Group of 20 summit next week. “We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.” Trump wrote on Twitter. Markets are reacting to this tweet as a signal to relax. However, on our point of view...
On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level...
Yesterday we said most traders were waiting for Draghi at Sintra. Here is waht we were waiting for! Euro fell after Draghi says "rate cuts" are part of the policy measures going forward. Continuation break in play!
A new higher high has been made on this pair and a move to the downside is on. Trade safe and good luck!
EurUsd remains in a range after the ECB left rates unchanged, announced favourable TLTROs and pushed the first rate hikes into 2020. This was ALL PRICED IN. The Euro is now higher as a result. We may take out the 1.1300 level if Draghi does nothing to inspire dovishness.
The EURCHF pair has reached once again an important support level which can be seen on the weekly chart. The support is formed by a confluence of the 61.8% Fib level and a strong horizontal support - the lower levels of the recent range. Shorter-term charts shows a symmetrical triangle pattern which may soon break out to the upside. The pair may retest the upper...
Yesterday’s session started without a gap and after a short correction, buyers really headed upwards to higher levels. Unfortunately, the momentum wasn’t strong enough to reach our target at 12 064. The session was then closed near it’s open at 11 986. Important zones Resistance: 12 064 Support: 11 861 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the...
EURUSD has been soft yesterday but losses are moderate, notably the bid got stronger since the European close. The 1.113 lows held for the daily close and we are sitting at steel support in the bottom of our 1.126 - 1.113 range for the European open. We have an important ECB/Fed combo coming next month, this is going to get very interesting as markets start...
Here tracking the data from Europe stabilising and ECB forecasts firming. This is having a positive impact on risk and further policy easing as "tiering" will be taken off the table in June. Interesting the rise in trade tensions of late has only shown a minor dip in ZEW expectations. In other words, large hands are starting to look at possibilities of parking...
Here we are tracking a very technical move to the top of the range after positive European election results, an important hurdle cleared for those tracking the macro floor building in EURUSD. Timing wise we still have pending June ECB and Fed meetings to clear however it is just a matter of time, in my book, before Europe receives a positive outlook.The main...