For those of who who follow closely my analysis, te shape of DOWI should not be a suprise. I was suprised by 172XX as an all time high because I was expecting 16706 to be the all time high.
Anyway, DOWI is in a consolidation phase towards 14400-14800 which is normal. Bare in mind that the market was fuelled by FED's QE and cheap money, i.e artificially. No FED...
This is a simple MACD analysis, to try an forecast a topping pattern before a crash, The safest and high probability trade for a short occurs when the MACD has a negative divergence highlighted in red circle and yellow divergence line. Since it has broken the uptrend support and it is coming back to test it close to the 0.236 fib retracement level. that would be...
Wolfe Wave - the Elliott Wave for lazy people. Sometimes an extremely effective tool. Around 16400 - we have strong support zone. If the defense will be successful - we go back to the north.
Distribution in progress.
www.investopedia.com
With the end of FED's QE3, market are gaining more and more volatility. This does not mean that market will crash, but there will be more heavy movement, and the swing frequency will be bigger.
FED's QE was inhibiting the market, that is why at the highest level of QE3, VIX was as low as 10... There is also more uncertainties in the market, baring in mind the...
No Pasaran! - i.e. "They shall not pass!!!!!!" The upper red line opens for the bulls way to the level 18,000. And then what? Another half year rally.
thepatternsite.com
en.wikipedia.org
If this is the Elliott 5th wave, and diagonal as it seen, then a long period of bearish trend is just begin.
If it breaks the channel, the lower side of the channel will be seen in a very short time and it will be the first target (wave A)
Volatility is increasing and it is good for swing traders. It is also good to see that the market is coming back to a normal stance, where Central banks are less intervening, or that there intervention is not effective anymore, because at the end of the day, for those who believe like me in liberal economy, you should really do let buyers and sellers fixing the...
We all know the market phases: accumulation, mark-up, distribution & mark-down. IMO we are in the distribution phase . It will take time. A diamonds are beautiful and unpredictable.
thepatternsite.com
www.investopedia.com
The next three days are very important for DOWI. In deed we are on the eve of the TENKAN-KIJUN twist far outside the Kumo cloud, which may very much mean that if the reversal is confirmed, this will be preety strong.
On the Kumo Cloud side of the story, although the next 23 periods appears to be on the upside of the story, if the Candle are crossing the cloud, it...
On the one hand - we have the triple top, on the other hand - we are waiting for the end of the impulse and the breakout from consolidation. The market, as usual, will go its own way.
thepatternsite.com
thepatternsite.com
Here is my logic:
1. Fundamentals don't support record highs. High stock prices don't represent real economic activity. Unemployment. situation still not pre-crises levels yet prices are way above that.
2. Oil showing lack of demand.
3. US dollar becoming more expensive. End of low exchange rate.
4. China weakening as well as imports.
5. End of easy money and fed...
At the the present time, we do have cheap money on the market but no more QE. Therefore market will have to fuel itself by its own. To do that, there must be a correction before ECB Launches its European QE which is not similar to FED's QE and no one know if US market will benefit from that.
Therefore a correction is normal before market has the ability to fuel...
Well, we can hardly make such a genuine double top. It is rare to see such a precision.
Of course, we do not know yet if it is a genuine douple top or not. A lot of signals show that it may be very much, but we need to see the next candle.
On the other hand, macro economic news are not of a kind to fluel the market.
If THIS CHART is a confirmed DOUBLE TOP, the...
VIX is turning its trend to a long position.
The upside of VIX is not a technical correction but rather an initial sign of a trend on the upside.
Generaly when DOWI is UP VIX is down and when VIX is up DOWI is down.
whereas when both of them are on the upside, it is a clear sign of a reversal.
Therefore one can estimate that DOWI will go on the upside first...
The question one has to answer is what will fuel the market?
a European QE? Good economic datas? Unemployment rate falling down?
We are almost in a clear double top formation with neckline at 16345.
A correction may be very much healthy for the index.
There is no interest rate increase for FED before 1Q15 for sure apparently, which means that the risk of...
The Stock Exchanges are rather overperforming. The economic datas are not that good, but the market is expecting ECB President Draghi to release fresh money in the market.
But there may be a reason to release the money in the market and thus this would only be possible when the market go to a severe correction otherwise, tax payer would not understand the reason...
When trading Indexes, it is always good to have a look on the volatility index and with Ichimoku, it is clear that the upside movement is very near.
The indicators such as STOCH or RSI show that we are either at oversold level like STOCH or about to reach it with RSI.
The Kumo Cloud shows a clear future turn in the trend.
It means that when VIX is up, indexes...
On a chartist analysis we can clearly see that there is a double top formation. The next days i.e Monday 26th will be a
day that will clearly confirm the double top formation or not.
Based on indicator, DOWI is already very high and a down side correction is again imminent.
If there is a double top formation which I do consider for sometime now, therefore, the...
