The positional strength in Bunds was just too strong to contain, the rest is obvious.
Now play the topside, retraces into buyers jurisdictions at -0.35 and -0.50 will attract a lot of selling interest in bunds (hence pushing yields up) and triggering the capitulation. We are still set for an emphasis of consolidation across Global Equities, this is still all...
German bund looks like a double top with divergence on the RSI. A break of the neckline would trigger a sell. Targeting the test of the trend line.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
I will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance...
On the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all...
A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously:
For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence;
Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in...
Forecast: I am expecting Bund to continue its uptrend going forward next 2 weeks. Currently, this week weekly candle close as an inside bar, suggesting consolidation period. Bund will either expand this coming week or next week.
First: Expansion next week, How to get in?
Trade entry: Long the Daily demand zone, with stop below
Confirmation: Reclaim last week...
Some techniques i like to employed into my trading is:
- Creating a range using Last week Price Action
- Creating a range using Monday Price Action
Key levels Identified:
1) Last Week High
2) Weekly Open
3) H4 Resistance turns support
4) Monday High
Here expecting Equities and Yields to perform the same dance till we clear the next important CB combo in September. We are at a crucial point in the cycle, a superb time for short covering to begin and with that the opportunity to ride a temporary correction before ECB/FED Sept.
A good example of a positional trade ahead of the ECB beginning to cut further;...
The market is sitting at the very lows right on time for ECB. We will not cover the Fundamental side here as this is in the main institutional chatroom... This strong support will mark the 4th wave from 2018. Those with a background in fibs and waves will know that for now price is capped below the 23.6% from the previous cycle; this in theory is the maximum...
From a technical perspective the spread US/German spread differentials have looked corrective since Q418. In what is a textbook example of Elliot Wave in action, the spread completed a 5 wave sequence at the highs in November 2018. The retrace held 38.2% of the move, forming a Wave B and opening up room for Wave C to reach 2.179bps.
We are in entering strong...
The corrective process is underway in German 10-year yields. The market met the criteria for the 3rd wave extension, since then we have retraced 23.65 of the prior leg down. A log of congestion here, expect oscillation for some time in this 4th wave (no surprises here for the FED / ECB combo coming later in the month).
For confidence in a base formation we would...
Here we are tracking the completion? of an ABC sequence. This should attract buying interest in usual circumstances however alarm bells are ringing after the ECB could only go one month with the tap turned off.
Tracking these lows very carefully over the coming days with risk from Brexit, Meuller and Turkey around the corner.
All the best.
DE10YBEUR long. The BUND exchange rate assuming a rising triple wave structure. The exchange rate started the second rising stage of this wave structure. Correction of which can start at a W1ATR axis. The third rising stage that started after the correction target price is 169.89
Bund has made a bullish exit and sees major support at 159.26 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). A strong rise could occur from here pushing price up to 160.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) has made a bullish exit signaling that there’s a change in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Trading CFDs on...
Bund is hovering really nicely above major support at 160.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a bounce could occur at this level. If price breaks through our descending resistance line, this would add much more conviction to the potential bounce up to 161.88 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap...
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards :)
Aaron
