As posted previously for the USDCAD analysis. we have had a break of hourly structure with a new LL made. Price is currently retesting and rejecting previous structure with the hourly 38.2% bearish fib acting as resistance. Targets are still the Cypher C-D leg completion.
Here we have a nice little 4HR double top right along a broken daily ascending trend line as well as the daily 78.6% bearish fib acting as resistance. Seems to be forming a Cypher harmonic pattern with a risk to reward of 1:3.6. If this pattern completes then we could well see a continuation of price down to 1.28500 for a swing trade
As most would know now we are at a crossroads here as to which direction we head in this confluence area!
The cypher has partly played out in this $11080 long term support area.
Whether we abc/impulse up or continue the larger ABC down?
1) New Zealand trade surplus widened tO NZD 433 million in April 2019 from NZD 200 million in the same month of the previous year and compared to market expectations of a NZD 400 million surplus
2) New Zealends unemployment rate fell tO 4.2% in the first quatar of 2019 from 4.3% in the previous period, matching market expectations and close to its 10 year low
Cypher Pattern already completed, but i'm waiting for a better confirmation as a price touching the the Major Support at 38,2 fib Support or waiting that break the Wedge to the upper side.
Bullish Cypher Pattern already completed
Falling Wedge pattern on formation
38,2 Fib Major Support
Confluence of Fib Inversion and Fib Extension
32,8 Fib Retracement
Confluence of 141,8 and FIB extension and 161,8 Fib Inversion
Be aware we have a Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern so we can expect only a pull back to 32,8 Fib of the last movement (Orange Zone)
Currently in a long cypher with targets 1 already hit and target 2 in sight.
If we can hit target 2 and continue a little higher we could see a second cypher completion to get invoved in the short side.
I am keeping an eye on this pair for the next few days to see how it plays out.
R;R is nearly 1:1.5
Safe trading everyone