The stock market (DJI) during the recovery vs. inverse of the Dollar Index DXY, and major currencies Euro EURUSD, Australian dollar AUDUSD, Japanese Yen JPYUSD, Chinese Yuan CNHUSD
USDCNH has been a strong driver of USD weakness and has weakened more that 7% over 5months, straight line. Looking at the technical structure of the double top and breakdown right through the neckline levels, the measured move takes us down to where USDCNH put in a low last week at 6.627. Last week produced a reversal candle (though a weak one) closing around...
📍 USDCNH into the elections Oct 2020 Markets are moving quickly. Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down. In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange...
FX Update: USD breaks support but do bears want to press their case pre-election? Summary: The US dollar closed last week below important support levels as investors position for a large US stimulus deal and wax positive on a Biden presidency as odds continue to tilt his way in the latest polls, easing fears of a contested election. Elsewhere, China initiated a...
📌 The struggle to claim 14,631 is notable. When studying the waves I came across similar a similar state of affairs in the earlier flows. The impulsive rally derives from its strong nature, not from itself but from much more the strategic concept of portfolio defence. A defensive move which is clearly crowded and starting to become a deer in the headlights could...
Measured move shows the previous wave cycle was corrective, making the next cycle the impulsive wave. *Since Yuan was introduced since 1955, there no use for making upward measured move target with incomplete data. --- Fundamentals// that China is not willing to keep print money like before+ US printing $$$
🔸 China Macro Flows 🔸 The point of this configuration is that CNH is influencing the currency, equity and commodity board that can be seen in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, OIL, Gold and everything in-between...USD's cannot make any use of the Yuan devaluation and this has been a threat ever since Saudi unlocked the CNY oil contract. For those tracking the Long-term Macro...
👨💻 Do you want to earn money on the exchange? I am sure that many people will answer this question in the affirmative-YES! Do you know what you need to do? Develop your own trading system and follow it clearly, recording all your trades and analyzing them after completion! If you don't, you probably don't earn any money. By the way, in a recent correspondence...
📍 In this position, after clearing the knee-jerk reaction from covid flows we are starting to enter into chapter II, heavy protection. The flows have shown strength in drastic fashion; the apparently bottomless wallet of keynsian economics - suddenly showing a surprising amount of animation! You can see the impact of PBOC on Chinese Equities here: ...and now...
Simple- Chinese Yuan currency devaluation by stealth over time against all major trading partners. Effectively, eliminating the effects of the trade tariff altogether.
The price of Gold is reasonably mysterious. For thousands of years Gold was “invaluable”. Gold was perhaps before our first and last "Yuan" the “buck” and life itself? Gold was before all our shiny Buddha statues, gold was before golden temples for god and gold mosque’s and Gold was before peaceful resistance and Gandhi and Gold was before Taoism in the far...
GBPAUD expecting this pair to head up to 2.03 and further once again. Both technical and fundamentals stack up. Good RR too
Strong bullish rally and retracement at golden ratio: The Chinese Yuan has been moving up with a strong bullish rally since June 2007 to January 2014 that is almost seven years that the Yuan has been moving up against the US dollars. Then from January 2014 to January 2017 the Chinese Yuan moved down and retraced at 0.618 Fibonacci level that is the golden ratio...
It looks like we can see this pair revisiting sub-7 area to hit the downside of the channel around 6.82.
On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the...
China returning from LNY and an (un)lucky -8% selloff taking the headlines as SHCOMP catches up to the bleeding across Global Equities since last week. Well done those that caught the move we traded live here: A flawless -8% leg in a single gap; as long as the full extent in the impact of this virus remains unclear it will be difficult for SHCOMP to get back...
FX:USDCNH If a bullish breakout should occur on this falling wedge, we will eventually try to get back on this cross. The first trade closed at a loss at 60% of the initial maximum risk. In this way we had optimized the realized losses reducing as often happens the % at initial risk. We do the same thing when trades follow our direction and also optimize...