Today we discuss how the grain markets weekly opening day closed and risk levels where our trades get invalidated
CBOT:KE1! CBOT:ZW1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZS1! KE (Kansas City) Wheat - CBOT (World) Wheat These tend to be extremely reliable signals, indicating long term trends / changes, as Wheat itself has a relatively long (~7 year) cycle. (Wheat growing regions spreading from (north) pole to (south) pole.)
We are long the PUT options since 535 - we wanted to limit our risk. Now it is safe to short the futures, as the market is very weak technically and fundamentally. Sell on a CLOSE below 492.25, stop loss on a CLOSE above 507. 435 is the price target. I have been travelling around the wheat region in Russia last week - observing the crops, talking to farmers....
Wheat has just finished a corrective move and because of its nature (Wheat is a very volatile instrument) it may seem to an untrained eye that the trend is up. However, that is not the case in my opinion - cycle is down. To approach this trade now we go long September PUT options, strike 475. The approximate price target is 435 at the point when the cycle...
The breakout level of the last breakout move has beed broken, so I go short, stop on the last peak, RR is quite nice.
📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any...
Thank you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated! _________________________________________________ The market has shown amazing entry point for a long trade down. The formation of a large wick followed by volumes later on gave us very profitable trades today. The support line is very strong and the market failed to break it . This is it for today!...
All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long...
Hello everybody, Here is my chart analysis for Corn Futures. Monthly timeframe & long-term vision. Since its historical top at 806'4 Corn is on a downtrend. Its bearish potential is really interesting. Nevertheless, 300'0 price level could be the next support. Indeed, Corn has been drifted in a range area between 320'0 & 440'0 since July 2014. If the actual...
Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely...
The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive...
On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into...
With the year almost up, a good time to update the USDTRY chart. Smart money has been tracking Turkish rates, the short end has been screaming weakness and markets not interest in any more BS with the dictator in charge. S400 remains a thorn in the shoe and blackmailing to close NATO bases is leaving a nasty aftertaste. For those who have been tracking the...
As shown in chart.
this is an idea based on fundamental and technical analysis, we are at a potential buy setup as the fundamentals(the report referred) suggest a minor supply and bad planting timing of the crop. it has to be remarked to read the comment of the acreage report at the end of the document and understand how the crop grows. if focused only on the first page of the...
If you look at the daily Coinbase chart and switch it to a log scale chart. Then you will see that the uptrend is stronger than you thought but you will also see that we have been in a Bear market since price closed below the 200 EMA back in January of this year. I have been told that many long term institutional investors use Log Scale charts -vs- standard...