Expecting another hike from the FED in November, supported by hawkish comments across the board to focus on reducing inflation to 2%, this is supported by positive data. Real yields (bond yield - inflation) are positive for the dollar, they're negative for GBP and EUR. We may still see another hike from BoE but the economy is in a mess. Need to watch for US...
Overview The UK's September inflation figures were released today. Inflation has not come down and continues to be high. This puts the Bank of England (BOE) in a dilemma. The Details UK YOY inflation has been released as 6.70%, the same as the previous month. Despite the BOE's rate hikes, UK inflation remains high and looks stubborn now. This could be the...
We've had a breakout of both support and descending dynamic trendline with no retest, which I'm expecting. I can't see us retesting the dynamic trendline so considering shorts on the LTF's when we return to the resistance (formerly support) line. Expecting Aussie strength and Pound weakness, we may go higher with the interest rate decision from the BoE this week...
The British pound has declined 0.56% against the US dollar on Wednesday, wiping out yesterday's gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2158, down 0.48%. The pound's downswing was driven by a higher-than-expected US retail sales report. Retail sales in the US surprised on the upside with a gain of 3.8% y/y in September. This beat the...
Overview UK and Canadian inflation rates will be released next week. These events could provide insight into whether the Bank of England(BOE) and the Bank of Canada(BOC) decide to raise rates further. The Details As things currently stand, the BOE will likely pause rates, and the BOC will raise rates again. This is in line with the current inflation figures....
The British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2273, up 0.29%. The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) voiced concern about consumer borrowing. The FPC noted that consumers were taking longer mortgages and increasing spending on credit cards in response to being squeezed by higher interest rates and...
Bullish EUR/AUD on Dovish RBA Monetary Policy Reunion The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its latest monetary policy meeting on October 3, 2023, and decided to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 4.10%. This was widely seen as a dovish move, as markets had been expecting a 25 basis point rate hike. The RBA's decision was likely influenced by a number of...
I'm expecting a continuation to the downside due to general GBP weakness. BOA held rates at 4.1%, so did BoE 5.25%, however it looks like the UK is more likely to have a deeper recession. I think the pound is generally over expended so seeing further correction. We've retraced 38% of the Fib and looking like a doji forming on the 8hr, if it does I'm looking to short.
This inverse Head and shoulders has produced fantastic gains already What suggests that final target will be met is that Yen vs other crosses is still yet trigger their respective necklines! I assume more madness to come from the #BOJ in the next Financial Panic. Like the Bank of England another Island nation probably first to embark on a new wave of...
The British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2245, down 0.40%. The struggling pound is down 1.1% this week and is trading at its lowest levels since late March. It is a busy day on the data calendar for UK releases. Retail sales rose in August by 0.4% m/m, following a 1.1% decline in July...
The British pound is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2470, down 0.31%. Will the real UK labour market please stand up? The UK labour market is showing signs of weakening, while at the same time wage growth grew at a record pace, according to today's employment release. The economy shed 207,000 jobs in the three...
British Pound supported at $1.25? The US dollar index is poised to reach a new multi-month peak. Contributing to DXY’s rise the most is the GBP/USD, with the pound losing 0.45% against the USD due to recent comments from the Bank of England’s governor. On Wednesday, Governor Andrew Bailey spoke in front the Treasury select committee, saying " I think we are...
The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720, down 0.09%. The UK economy continues to cool down, and today's PMI readings showed deceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 42.5 in August, down from 45.3 and below the consensus estimate of 42.5. The...
GBP/JPY bulls remain in charge on central bank divergence, but the FOMC minutes could sway things one way or the other as explained in this video.
The British pound has posted considerable gains on Wednesday. In the North session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2754, up 0.39%. The UK released the July inflation report today and the readings were a mixed bag. Headline CPI dropped to 6.8% y/y, a sharp drop from the 7.9% gain in June and matching the consensus estimate. The decline was certainly welcome news but the...
The British pound has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2697, up 0.08%. Investors were treated to a mixed UK employment report today. The labour market, which has been surprisingly resilient in the face of the Bank of England's tightening, is showing unmistakable signs of cooling. Employment fell by 66,000 in the three...
Of the three central banks that I primarily trade, the Bank of England (BOE) has the biggest puzzle. Today's data was the worst possible for Governor Bailey and his team. Specifically, employment fell by 66,000 and the unemployment rate ticked higher by 0.2% for the second month in a row to 4.2% (the Federal Reserve would be delighted with this turn of...
The British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight. The economy is expected to have created 50,000 jobs in the three months to June. That number is down from 125,000...