The 10Yr Yield is performing as indicated. The Reversal is trading the Trend Line and FIB Extensions to near perfection. Beyond the 1Hr, which is a better TF to illustrate the Price action - The Daily continues to remain in Strength within the trend. The Trade Plan has a break of the 1.7650 Highs as the Catalyst for the test of the Equity Complex...
ES1! Challenging an ATH as the everything rally continues. The 10 Year continues it's ascension as volatility is found in the small caps. NAS leading the way up. Thank you to "openclipart' for providing the open source Bond Classic.
The weekly iH&S is testing the neckline. Key spot for growth tech as we challenge 1.67.
Could post a problem for the Equity Complex. The ROC's would begin to increase again, averaging 3.12% would push TNX to 1.71 very quickly. This would not provide anything but a SELL for TECH. The DX has been supportive of Higher Prices for Equities as it remains in a small Countertrend. The JPY/USDX is the primary cause. Once the Fuse is lit, it is Blue Skies
NAS and SPX rally with Crypto and the 10 year note..
The 4 hour Higher Low found resistance at the 1.6 zone as a Head and Shoulders will form if a Higher High is thwarted. A larger frame iH&S on watch as well as the interactive effects with Tech Growth post earnings.
We Indicated the 10 Year Note Yield would initially retest the Highs several months back. We can see the APEX resides at the Prior Highs. The effort will be a multi-week affair, although as ROCs continue to build we are beginning to see Wider spread within the FIB Wave, indicating caution at a Resistance of 1.645%. The DX is benefitting from this as GOLD begins...
Catching a bid here, watching for any consequence for Tech as AMZN had it's day after good news from Consumer Spending.
Lots of volatility for the next eight months on the US 10 year treasury. Overall rates are moving up, but a couple dip opportunities to lock in your borrowers rates, not a financial advisor, just my thoughts.
Not really sure what to make of this just yet, but the 10Y yield definitely appears to be heading higher. Ironically enough, this is happening amid a #fed that is committed (at least in the near term) to maintaining low interest rates. My guess is the Fed knows rates will rise on their own, thereby creating a competitive environment among lenders. We will...
With DX Strength coming from the JPY Pair... The Red Swan continues to build from our months long indicated Vector - China. The CCP announced they will only bail out Domestics. ETF Passives hold, indirectly, a far larger stake in China's Economy then is openly acknowledged. Never has the South China Sea - been this active militarily. TSML... in questions as to...
A work in progress to understand the Bonds Market as an indicator for rotations from the Russell 2000 to Nasdaq, and back again. FOMC and the Dot Plot will Taper any doubt.
The Bond Markets are revolting once again. Taper or not, doesn't matter, Inflation has taken hold. Either way the FED is being challenged. Heads they lose, Tails the lose. Expectations are what they are... Demand Push, Supply Pull. Demand Pull, Supply Push. C O S T Strangles. Jerome is done.
There's nothing much to see in the stock indices as the trends, or lack thereof (RTY1!), have continued. This week I'll be watching the 10Y rate to see if a retest of the recent lows matters at all to the broader market. When things are slow, it's good to measure just how slow. I like to use the 7-D ATR to gauge volatility and I explain how to do so in this post.
Look for next support on the Yearly pivot point(P) at 1.07%. the Yearly R1 pivot point to the Yearly P = textbook algorithmic move.
As the US 10-year yield has retested the 200-MA acting as a resistance, it is now highly likely to continue to move downward. Indeed, despite inflation fears, the current US deficits wouldn't allow significantly higher yields. Therefore, bonds holder are likely to get negative real yields for a long time. In such a setup, owning long-duration bonds seems to be...
If the 10 Year doesn't hold this technical support then expect it to go a lot lower.
There are a lot of factors to think that 1.800 is posible. It also can make a necessary correction in stock indexes. In mi oppinion inflation is as non transitory as the big Fed's man tell us. Let's see...